Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68cc0dd9c1041603f09301e28dc7844bd28fb3c407b334c348687539dab6a540

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $223,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,209 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	43,486$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.49	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	28,735$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.04	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	21,433$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.27	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	20,990$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.59	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	18,216$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	13,075$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.67	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	10,898$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x792a…b16dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	8,966$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	8,641$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.63	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	7,184$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	6,244$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	6,036$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.07	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,475$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.23	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	5,334$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.93	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,007$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	3c	4,805$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.75	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	4,223$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.49	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,139$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	3,908$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.82	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	0c	3,600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	3,012$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.75	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	0c	2,678$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	2,646$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	1c	2,625$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	2,621$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	8c	2,613$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.89	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	2c	2,490$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.01	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	2,364$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,314$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,221$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	3c	2,146$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	2,141$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	2c	2,004$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…4064backed Yes	4c	2,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.01	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes	1c	1,904$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	39	7.7%3 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-28%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	3c	1,800$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	1c	1,746$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	1,741$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.97	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	1,719$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.36	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	2c	1,643$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	2c	1,514$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,420$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.64	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	4c	1,375$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	3c	1,256$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.63	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,166$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…65d8backed Yes	2c	1,150$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	1,107$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	4c	1,098$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes	2c	1,042$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…2f81backed Yes	2c	1,037$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,012$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	999.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a9…56a4backed Yes	1c	975$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	3c	889.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.13	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes	2c	845$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	2c	826.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	1c	810$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…ee47backed Yes	2c	788.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…39ddbacked Yes	3c	775$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes	1c	768$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	3c	752.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe86c…739bbacked Yes	1c	713.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes	5c	667.43$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.81	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa657…00bfbacked Yes	3c	651.03$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	2c	587.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…ea3dbacked Yes	2c	573$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	2c	490.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…f604backed Yes	4c	483.68$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27e4…575cbacked Yes	2c	478$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7a…af3ebacked Yes	3c	472.79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe506…1bccbacked Yes	3c	464.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	442$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6d…b16cbacked Yes	2c	433.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	4c	425.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a5c…ccb6backed Yes	3c	357$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b8…de8dbacked Yes	7c	343.59$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	331.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.27	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287f…43d5backed Yes	5c	312$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2696…d637backed Yes	5c	284$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06de…ca2abacked Yes	5c	254$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc93b…4567backed Yes	5c	232$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c97…32ddbacked Yes	5c	232$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event