Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a25da3dcef6574eea4c170bfcbe274a28c657fd521bde9085358a15e0b6785

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $160,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb2e6…07debacked Yes	0c	22,190$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	14,990$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	12,431$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	9,350$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	8,509$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.16	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	5,829$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	0c	5,603$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.77	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa9…c4bcbacked Yes	2c	5,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes	5c	4,780$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.39	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd832…19b7backed Yes	1c	4,670$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.8	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	4c	4,393$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.18	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,720$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.21	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	3,183$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.45	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	3c	2,518$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.54	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,384$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.96	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	2,260$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.28	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	2,200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	4c	2,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes	5c	2,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71a1…19e7backed Yes	4c	1,726$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.03	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	3c	1,646$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	1,615$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.1	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,610$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	3c	1,429$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc0…661bbacked Yes	6c	1,421$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,303$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8402…bfa4backed Yes	4c	1,255$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.53	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	1,212$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.45	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,190$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.73	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	2c	1,185$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	1,022$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9873…c59ebacked Yes	4c	936.21$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	6c	911.86$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.11	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	901.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	803.46$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	4c	803.34$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	6c	800$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8015…da39backed Yes	3c	762.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	761.22$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	4c	759.75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.59	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	3c	739$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	4c	725.09$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	679.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	4c	659.84$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	613.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	4c	600$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	592.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	3c	580.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	567.79$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.35	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes	4c	557.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.71	94	12.8%12 W · 82 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	2c	550.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	6c	521.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c9…1f65backed Yes	3c	500.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f3…ae51backed Yes	6c	500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+73.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	3c	499.2$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	3c	457.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes	6c	454.72$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	89	25.8%23 W · 66 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcadc…4285backed Yes	5c	429.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	406.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	4c	389.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189b…c50abacked Yes	6c	380.43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2497…a8f7backed Yes	5c	379.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	6c	359.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	339.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	7c	298.46$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes	3c	287.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6900…a745backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	7c	160.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event