Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b283cde7533a79e377d9d96c4dc656353d497712e6b7e0354083ae86e9baee1

Rebuilt 23 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,929 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd832…19b7backed Yes	1c	7,385$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.79	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,222$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	7,032$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	6,754$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	6,368$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.57	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes	3c	5,920$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.15	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,937$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.96	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,035$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa9…c4bcbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x366c…5078backed Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,968$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.29	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	1,810$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	2c	1,737$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.46	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	2c	1,716$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,690$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	1,668$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	1,328$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	3c	1,296$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	1,250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,226$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	1c	1,186$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,154$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,130$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	3c	1,118$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.13	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes	2c	1,088$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.74	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	2c	1,080$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cea…4ae1backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	1c	997.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	855.91$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.9	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	2c	838$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	2c	799.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	2c	788.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	757.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	748.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.24	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	739.66$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.45	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	711.84$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.93	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	703.15$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	657.38$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	3c	584$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	3c	560$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefb…dc0bbacked Yes	2c	530.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	4c	497.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	4c	474.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	383.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	377.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes	6c	292.63$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	219.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event