Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4080759b69911283a2e96980958b8f15d4dc85f1676fcd85da97bd559a9acb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 30c | 469.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 430$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 72c | 367.47$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 321.41$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 236.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 67c | 206.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 182.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 180.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 176.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 35c | 164.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes | 28c | 139.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 139.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 37c | 129.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 20c | 112.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 111.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 70c | 104.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 79c | 98.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 22c | 95.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 34c | 93.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 72c | 93.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 33c | 88.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 86.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 83.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 81.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 79.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 75.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 72.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…f314backed Yes | 36c | 65.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 66c | 59.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 40c | 58.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 32c | 57.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 57.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 34c | 50.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 70c | 49.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 39.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d11ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 35.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 34.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 79c | 32.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 32.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 30.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 68c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…9184backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fa…a7dcbacked No | 66c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 77c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…7553backed No | 69c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked No | 78c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.