Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69e15a3d1f6974f6ff23d7ee70d36d696b3b4b23ad92ff43dec4ea971ad1e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 724.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 708.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 9c | 559.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…1b30backed Yes | 22c | 354.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 293.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 269.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 267.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 249.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 17c | 233.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 223.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 12c | 218.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 201.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…0744backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 8c | 185.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 17c | 176.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 13c | 168.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 18c | 144.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 12c | 131.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 112.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 107.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…20b3backed Yes | 12c | 95.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 13c | 93.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 59.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 51.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 73c | 37.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 65c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 67c | 24.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.