Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6558b6b54dafcea732515596cb0dbfa94c0c1e25ee46caf1bf304a8441dc8ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 1c | 2,412$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 386.55$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 46c | 373.07$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.85 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 72c | 364.74$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 24c | 329.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 260.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 73c | 235.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 10c | 234.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 42c | 225.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 38c | 166.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 146.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 58c | 116$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 113.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 110.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 38c | 106.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 104.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 52c | 99.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 57c | 98.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 95.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…20b3backed Yes | 43c | 94.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 91.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 89.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 42c | 88.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 81.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 81.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 30c | 80.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 61c | 74.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 66.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 65.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 63c | 62.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes | 38c | 61.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 59.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 59c | 57.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…d85cbacked Yes | 71c | 53.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 55c | 52.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 36c | 50.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 41c | 49.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 61c | 49.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 53c | 47.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 47.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 53c | 46.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 40c | 46.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 50c | 45.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 76c | 45.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 60c | 45.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 42.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 69c | 42.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 40.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 36c | 40.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 40.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 38.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 37.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 37.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 62c | 36.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 76c | 36.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…76f3backed No | 63c | 35.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 59c | 34.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6d…b477backed No | 61c | 33.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…538bbacked No | 58c | 33.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 41c | 32.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 32.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 33c | 31.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 43c | 30.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7b38backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x63c1…0f1fbacked No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 25.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 57c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 68c | 24.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Yes | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 72c | 23.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…6586backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 50c | 20.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0a68backed No | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…51d6backed No | 63c | 18.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 67cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 15.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.