TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccfa…9600backed Yes0c12,423$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5603…0ab4backed Yes1c8,200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No22c5,562$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,326.7886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No11c4,989$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,424.232,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb34a…919abacked Yes3c3,271$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb868…20afbacked Yes1c2,790$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes37c2,600$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.6128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed No32c1,625$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.117518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes77c1,489$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.632638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No69c1,401$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.9229953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed No14c1,400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2044032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No21c1,344$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.1672222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e2c…e502backed Yes23c1,099$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0297…6e1ebacked Yes65c1,086$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes79c944.68$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.6719338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked No12c911.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.077644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…c45dbacked Yes52c900$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No21c865.67$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.0466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes44c838.87$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No24c837.14$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.643,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb990…c4b7backed Yes8c806.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.754658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+233%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7ff…1957backed Yes60c790$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes74c732.42$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.034,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes2c699.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.156118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No15c665.94$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.372128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No76c635.02$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec83…7014backed Yes18c597.29$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.892528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No57c583.63$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.41,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes28c493.93$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.594,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c460.78$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.762,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed No51c447.12$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.7418668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No22c446.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.6118530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes69c424.68$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.241741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8115…e521backed Yes5c419.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes64c401.42$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc438…5a9dbacked Yes8c389.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7012…12efbacked Yes61c380.58$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes23c379.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.220025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes44c362.06$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.818327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No13c351.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked No59c350.13$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.112860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes74c341.12$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.421428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed No57c336.04$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes35c324.49$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes38c320.42$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.89548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes33c303.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.962334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed No79c299.99$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes59c289.59$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0835233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3a…c4febacked Yes4c283.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No8c281.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.5828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes71c272.95$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.23850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes19c269.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.661,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x793b…76efbacked No16c262.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.511070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+69.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e06…42f0backed No75c254.21$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes61c249.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.57524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No39c246.95$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7181165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c245.27$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.213,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No33c232.51$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.871,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9471…eb8abacked No7c231.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.563417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes75c230.23$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.031450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes40c212.23$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.251,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes48c209.47$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed No16c208.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6511122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No9c203.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.672,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No37c203.72$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0832830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes20c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed No35c195.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0116530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c195.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d5…55f7backed Yes24c189.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.221833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed No15c183$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.553243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf052…0ce7backed Yes77c176.3$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.54875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c166$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe455…81f5backed No57c164.4$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes62c162.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0412233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c161.76$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.154,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No15c157.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c157.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0d61…0e12backed Yes77c157.57$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8e…435cbacked No17c156.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes62c155.79$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2798738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No7c153.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2659742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes66c145.45$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.86240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b7…9668backed Yes68c140.93$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No32c139.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No15c137.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4712363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc203…1ad2backed No36c131.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.491827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362f…b8eabacked No50c129.51$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.055549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes61c126.74$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8826265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No38c126.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb33a…ce7dbacked Yes11c113.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No18c113.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.691,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x394a…ba7fbacked Yes78c112.31$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.511250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No33c111.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.832,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes69c111.24$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7167158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196c…2a0dbacked No16c110.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes25c107.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3514645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1843…affabacked No17c104.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.141637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed No18c102$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No49c100.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8216456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.54831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.