TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes0c9,870$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.423030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes13c1,718$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.811931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Yes12c900$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No70c854.73$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.4286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes26c528.53$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c345.46$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes15c333.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.075,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes23c330.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c314.18$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d01…fbb6backed Yes23c289.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes32c281.69$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.463836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes19c279.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c277.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.762,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes25c216.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5219338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed No75c216.33$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.568100%8 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes30c211.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c210.21$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Yes32c202.47$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4241845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes16c192.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3959021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes26c189.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.025565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33fa…c278backed Yes26c184.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c173.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes23c171.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.521,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes27c170.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1556131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes33c168.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.995152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes18c158.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.046750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes19c156.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4636648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fa3…bb15backed Yes25c149.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.02944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes11c146.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7524238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes28c132.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.121625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe45…f717backed Yes11c118.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.08425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c115.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.79,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes22c108.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.836833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.510163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2628517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes21c97.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.57534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes27c97.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes29c96.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9311663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes17c94.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7321429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes19c94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1332132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes27c92.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a05…6782backed Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed Yes26c86.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes22c84.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c84.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.287,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes28c83.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.214613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf13b…33d0backed Yes29c77.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c76.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ea…9d52backed Yes26c70.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…9c96backed Yes26c65.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.311833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes24c63.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9662137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes16c63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.478663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ede…86febacked Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes40c58.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de2…a1cdbacked Yes29c56.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes45c56.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.222931%9 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c55.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.791,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…9d2cbacked Yes19c54.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+70.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes23c54.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xacb7…b2a7backed Yes27c54.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No73c53.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6eef…a835backed Yes20c52.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No73c50.89$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x404d…1ba7backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc293…675dbacked Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134537.8%17 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes26c49.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.193438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes24c49.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa439…9ed6backed Yes30c47.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.231625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c47.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.422,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e5…6412backed Yes33c46.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.392744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c46.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8d…ba65backed No76c45.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked Yes28c43.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0316740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No56c41.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No72c40.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.431,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c75…4636backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd87…5eb3backed No74c39.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.296065%39 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0008…e37bbacked No72c39.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.852965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c38.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc935…74cfbacked Yes28c37.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7309…95bdbacked Yes29c36.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3911124.3%27 W · 84 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed No78c31.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked No75c29.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3111145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf9…96e1backed No71c29.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.455749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed No75c26.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.655950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed No76c25.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.162755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No79c24.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2572952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8be9…845fbacked No75c24.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.216063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe045…d304backed No75c24.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813a…2691backed No78c24.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No61c23.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No73c22.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.172,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.