Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x188d9a57244185480809cd40b054f5f7b8fa2ce5041c2c256ca496d8dc657609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 3c | 4,089$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,643$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,379$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 8c | 790.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 735.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 5c | 626.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 7c | 533.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 447.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 373.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes | 12c | 368.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 8c | 360.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…ced8backed Yes | 8c | 337.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 10c | 323.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 261.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 7c | 251.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 6c | 242.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 7c | 209.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 206.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 184.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…fc45backed Yes | 8c | 179.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 6c | 171$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 161.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 151.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 11c | 115.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 11c | 115.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 12c | 106.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 11c | 99.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 14c | 85.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.