Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd762ed263691d8bb5893977755eba0b04e902bf532e682e91e83f156924c4e7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 2,367$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 80c | 2,030$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.47 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…1ba7backed No | 55c | 2,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 55c | 1,381$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 1,285$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 61c | 959$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.63 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…b2f1backed No | 51c | 948.79$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 37c | 795.95$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.32 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 43c | 791.14$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.97 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 27c | 765.15$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.41 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed No | 18c | 700$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 71c | 616.52$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.85 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 43c | 608.86$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 45c | 555.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 555.8$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 54c | 546.31$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.59 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 7c | 525.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…aa32backed No | 54c | 520.78$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 48c | 497.52$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.92 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 61c | 491.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 53c | 478.57$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 50c | 439.57$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.22 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 30c | 421.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.76 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 411.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed No | 27c | 400$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 51c | 399.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 45c | 368.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.05 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked No | 55c | 330.43$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 47c | 328.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 322.4$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 28c | 309.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 31c | 281.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 50c | 279.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 45c | 267.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 56c | 254.85$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 38c | 253.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 30c | 250.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 63c | 234.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.42 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 55c | 233.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 38c | 220.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 56c | 218.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed No | 57c | 214.79$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 53c | 209.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…9832backed Yes | 49c | 209.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…44e6backed Yes | 55c | 207.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 47c | 205.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 205.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 10c | 203.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 45c | 197.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 49c | 196.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 46c | 196.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 192.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 188.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 39c | 187.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…e14bbacked No | 55c | 178.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 40c | 177.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 177.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 172.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 170.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 50c | 161.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked No | 62c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 39c | 150.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 58c | 146.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f8…7953backed No | 64c | 146.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 145.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 54c | 142.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 47c | 142.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 141.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 45c | 140.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 36c | 139.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 53c | 135.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 80c | 134.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 128.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 53c | 126.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 48c | 125.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1140…cb1fbacked No | 11c | 124.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 46c | 124.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…1ea7backed No | 55c | 121.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 45c | 120.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 50c | 113.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…847ebacked Yes | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d736backed Yes | 49c | 110.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 109.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 42c | 108.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed No | 55c | 102.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed No | 58c | 100.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…ddfbbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.