TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes47c2,367$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.44,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes80c2,030$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.4736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x404d…1ba7backed No55c2,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9193…a796backed Yes55c1,381$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.551741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c1,285$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked No61c959$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.636656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b8…b2f1backed No51c948.79$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes37c795.95$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.327524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes43c791.14$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.977913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes27c765.15$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.417534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed No18c700$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.71729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No71c616.52$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.853669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes43c608.86$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.143836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes45c555.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9933018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c555.8$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.215,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…a20abacked No54c546.31$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.593470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed No7c525.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.983839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3862…aa32backed No54c520.78$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.98875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes48c497.52$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9219338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No61c491.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1116456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes53c478.57$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.032045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes50c439.57$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.223253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes30c421.2$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.7634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c411.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed No27c400$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.22944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No51c399.97$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1916046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes45c368.51$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.055152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72b2…ffcabacked No55c330.43$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No47c328.42$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.521429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes80c322.4$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed Yes28c309.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.59054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes31c281.13$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.2156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No50c279.43$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7410617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed Yes45c267.56$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.47360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No56c254.85$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a05…6782backed Yes38c253.15$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes30c250.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.013511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No63c234.96$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4213243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No55c233.83$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.411565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes38c220.05$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No56c218.78$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3342469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…c916backed No57c214.79$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.421931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fb…5fb7backed No53c209.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.936936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8117…9832backed Yes49c209.22$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97be…44e6backed Yes55c207.96$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+73.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Yes47c205.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c205.73$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No10c203.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1526327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.41,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f8…750bbacked Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf79…92b6backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb9d…6804backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No52c200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102119%4 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x45b3…eed5backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf565…cb93backed Yes46c199.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082425%6 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf821…f546backed Yes45c197.73$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.282222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8b7…4834backed Yes49c196.55$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.241910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-75.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes46c196.01$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.862020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes43c192.36$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.611,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes45c188.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.255336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes39c187.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.561915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-57.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f17…e14bbacked No55c178.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes40c177.41$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No13c177.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6559021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c172.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes29c170.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3756131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes50c161.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.665565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked No62c160$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.44325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113f…120ebacked Yes39c150.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.951816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No58c146.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2811663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f8…7953backed No64c146.74$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c145.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.412,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes54c142.97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.791,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes47c142.41$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6916320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c141.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked Yes45c140.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6219152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes36c139.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed No53c135.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.094231%13 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes80c134.94$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5118668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.719022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c128.26$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.222,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…5f37backed No53c126.48$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.691827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes48c125.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.81650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1140…cb1fbacked No11c124.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes46c124.3$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.561625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…1ea7backed No55c121.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes45c120.47$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.991,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes50c113.92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9224029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7b4…847ebacked Yes53c113$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.11862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f2…d736backed Yes49c110.1$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No50c109.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6318052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes42c108.29$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ce…3af1backed No55c102.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.423522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xceb6…c637backed No58c100.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick60cpaid-63.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.928742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67fc…ddfbbacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.