La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ef9dd7f8ecefad2f2deb414ebe89cf3eece0f37caf432aea154046fc343223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,166 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 5,108$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.79 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 7c | 1,625$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 80c | 1,589$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.67 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 19c | 1,250$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.87 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52aa…e5dabacked Under | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5ad4backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 77c | 335$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ad4bbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 76c | 92.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 21c | 61.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…7c2ebacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6a…8ec7backed Under | 79c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70e…8ce9backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…4114backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…51acbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Elche CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Elche CF won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.