La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90523121428dca91ac84d6e13ff41fe1a4eb78b963ccc2099a80abdbd15ca4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,743 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 6,123$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.05 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 2,858$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.83 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…3002backed Under | 18c | 2,828$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 17c | 2,542$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.45 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 19c | 2,142$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.3 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 80c | 1,888$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 72c | 1,399$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.76 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 17c | 1,361$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…16c7backed Under | 15c | 780.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 19c | 624.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 450$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…2cf2backed Under | 18c | 230.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 22c | 175.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 28c | 170.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…0014backed Over | 68c | 133.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 14c | 74.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…fdaabacked Over | 75c | 73.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 29c | 72.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 21c | 69.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Under | 21c | 57.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…c4b2backed Over | 79c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Elche CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Elche CF won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.