La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7916ac9b4b66194733c051e42005a22d9fbf49b122eeedc652ca6b7d65081814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elche CFof Villarreal CF, Elche CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,116 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 20,617$10,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,102.22 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Elche CF | 52c | 16,596$8,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,998.04 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Elche CF | 80c | 7,776$6,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Villarreal CF | 20c | 1,633$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.54 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…54cbbacked Villarreal CF | 50c | 1,608$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Villarreal CF | 22c | 1,140$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Villarreal CF | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Elche CF | 53c | 277.86$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Elche CF | 53c | 175.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Villarreal CF | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Villarreal CF | 18c | 101.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Villarreal CF | 48c | 83.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Villarreal CF | 42c | 74.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…e290backed Elche CF | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Villarreal CF | 29c | 61.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Villarreal CF | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…a8b1backed Villarreal CF | 51c | 57.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Elche CF | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…66e2backed Villarreal CF | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Elche CF | 53c | 40.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Elche CF | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Elche CF | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Elche CF | 54c | 33.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Elche CF | 78c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…0f24backed Elche CF | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Elche CF won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.