CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb56f89eaecfa991d96fd8847e8ef8b418c4b2fa17deed78422c29c9824103c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, Ground Zero
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,687 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ground Zero | 0c | 7,391$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 78c | 716.34$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.04 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 51c | 697.07$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.46 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8e25…3aecbacked Ground Zero | 32c | 529.64$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Ground Zero | 5c | 473.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Ground Zero | 49c | 222.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…ff12backed Ground Zero | 49c | 205.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Ground Zero | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 325 | 36%117 W · 208 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 184.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Ground Zero | 16c | 173.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Ground Zero | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Ground Zero | 17c | 123.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…5228backed Ground Zero | 38c | 105.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed Ground Zero | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…ffc0backed Ground Zero | 49c | 81.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6a…8ec7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 73.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Ground Zero | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 74c | 34.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero - Map 2 WinnerGround Zero won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.