South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2f09598a3880a1aa88e9ec22e5c41f1525f0c96a8442a0b3ee3e0943ec192ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 14,649$7,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,313.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 12,807$6,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,620.18 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 51c | 2,505$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.75 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 2,001$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.31 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 52c | 1,865$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 1,797$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.58 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6a…8ec7backed Under | 59c | 966.95$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 650.48$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.48 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 18c | 566.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.11 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 506.2$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.25 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 397.09$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 54c | 301.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 67c | 294.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.3 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 161.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…da73backed Under | 69c | 145.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 124.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb8…54bbbacked Over | 53c | 96.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 53c | 94.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 70c | 90.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 45c | 67.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 62.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x669b…6557backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…eadebacked Over | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…fb6cbacked Under | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 34.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…e625backed Under | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 41c | 28.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…fcffbacked Over | 53c | 28.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…2937backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 54c | 24.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…3204backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.