South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5a3d26d97de624befa88837dc785e3dc9ee3cbc8ae0f11486fd05530be2eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 51c | 859.82$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.82 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 660.47$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 33c | 433.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 327.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.18 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Under | 38c | 257.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 236.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 222.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 76c | 192.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 24c | 187.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f63…4fe9backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…7c66backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 129.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 46c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…39ddbacked Over | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 69c | 73.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 63c | 54.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…dca9backed Under | 32c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 63c | 33.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01aa…ad2fbacked Over | 69c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e3…855bbacked Over | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 63c | 16.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.