Tennis · resolved market

Cap Cana: Nicolas Mejia vs Shintaro Mochizuki

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf682380a67cb205cdec9db675ca67b83bc908578b3805696ce9df48de20e5686

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Shintaro Mochizukiof Nicolas Mejia, Shintaro Mochizuki
Resolved: Mar 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,711 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Nicolas Mejia	25c	5,700$1,445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,445.19	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	2,511$1,202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,308.22	1,118	42.8%479 W · 639 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nicolas Mejia	18c	2,023$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.36	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70e…4a2dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki	47c	2,016$951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,064.27	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Shintaro Mochizuki	44c	1,305$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$731.84	305	42.6%130 W · 175 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nicolas Mejia	18c	1,238$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.82	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki	50c	1,169$584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$584.87	1,284	39.2%503 W · 781 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nicolas Mejia	45c	800.08$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.3	1,265	29.2%370 W · 895 L	-13.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki	47c	605.59$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.3	301	31.9%96 W · 205 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb146…e717backed Nicolas Mejia	58c	514.81$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Nicolas Mejia	41c	500$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	469	32%150 W · 319 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Nicolas Mejia	56c	400$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	96	43.8%42 W · 54 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…6af2backed Nicolas Mejia	57c	400$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	128	35.2%45 W · 83 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Mejia	50c	399.58$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.57	6,599	50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L	+259.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Nicolas Mejia	58c	360.02$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	479	46.3%222 W · 257 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Nicolas Mejia	56c	326.79$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	99	49.5%49 W · 50 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Mejia	58c	301.66$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.49	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Nicolas Mejia	54c	280$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	971	41.4%402 W · 569 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nicolas Mejia	54c	259.2$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.89	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Nicolas Mejia	53c	240.88$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.43	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	230$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.75	193	38.9%75 W · 118 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+109.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Shintaro Mochizuki	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	233	53.2%124 W · 109 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Shintaro Mochizuki	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	430	62.3%268 W · 162 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca1a…89e5backed Shintaro Mochizuki	43c	211.66$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.38	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Nicolas Mejia	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Nicolas Mejia	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	89	51.7%46 W · 43 L	+8.4wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Nicolas Mejia	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	328	42.7%140 W · 188 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebb…7e02backed Nicolas Mejia	56c	199.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.99	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked Nicolas Mejia	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	330	55.8%184 W · 146 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Nicolas Mejia	50c	178.15$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.16	967	55.3%535 W · 432 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Nicolas Mejia	50c	136$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	857	48.2%413 W · 444 L	+33.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nicolas Mejia	52c	132.91$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.63	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Nicolas Mejia	56c	128.98$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.23	658	49.4%325 W · 333 L	+8.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Nicolas Mejia	58c	125$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.5	350	40.9%143 W · 207 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Shintaro Mochizuki	43c	124.73$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.04	3,072	44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L	-30.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Nicolas Mejia	19c	120$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	970	46.6%452 W · 518 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Nicolas Mejia	33c	120$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5160…ac0bbacked Nicolas Mejia	72c	119.29$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.58	104	69.2%72 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	71cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Nicolas Mejia	57c	111.11$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.11	363	49.9%181 W · 182 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	108.87$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.93	1,831	53%971 W · 860 L	-45.3wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Nicolas Mejia	57c	108$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.56	265	45.3%120 W · 145 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c5…99d8backed Shintaro Mochizuki	49c	102.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.65	128	53.9%69 W · 59 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f1…f53cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki	49c	95.92$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.92	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Shintaro Mochizuki	45c	89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.95	380	48.4%184 W · 196 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Nicolas Mejia	58c	83.85$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.59	2,537	53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L	+61.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7baf…4acabacked Shintaro Mochizuki	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	31	71%22 W · 9 L	+6.5wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Nicolas Mejia	58c	78.23$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.37	363	33.9%123 W · 240 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Nicolas Mejia	53c	77$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.58	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nicolas Mejia	51c	74.44$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90d…e7d6backed Nicolas Mejia	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-6.5wins	-0.20per pick	52cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Nicolas Mejia	54c	71.41$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.24	2,065	35.2%727 W · 1,338 L	-52.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Nicolas Mejia	52c	66.34$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	138	47.8%66 W · 72 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Nicolas Mejia	52c	64.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.59	1,588	47%746 W · 842 L	-24.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Nicolas Mejia	59c	64.34$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.74	683	50.1%342 W · 341 L	-25.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	64$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.28	968	44.4%430 W · 538 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda4f…77e9backed Nicolas Mejia	58c	62.3$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.06	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb551…17ffbacked Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	60.5$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.29	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nicolas Mejia	50c	60.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	57$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.64	599	54.9%329 W · 270 L	+10.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Shintaro Mochizuki	59c	54.18$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.41	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nicolas Mejia	40c	53.45$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Shintaro Mochizuki	29c	53$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.63	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Shintaro Mochizuki	67c	52.74$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.26	211	72%152 W · 59 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	67cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Nicolas Mejia	55c	50.17$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.59	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Shintaro Mochizuki	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Nicolas Mejia	57c	47.23$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.92	849	63.1%536 W · 313 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Shintaro Mochizuki	45c	46$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	602	40.5%244 W · 358 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Shintaro Mochizuki	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	272	46.3%126 W · 146 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Shintaro Mochizuki	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	940	60.6%570 W · 370 L	+11.3wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41f…6100backed Shintaro Mochizuki	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	112	34.8%39 W · 73 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Nicolas Mejia	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	770	47.9%369 W · 401 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Nicolas Mejia	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	292	44.5%130 W · 162 L	-8.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7027…fababacked Nicolas Mejia	53c	37.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	58	60.3%35 W · 23 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaf4…8c98backed Nicolas Mejia	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nicolas Mejia	54c	33.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	1,444	38%548 W · 896 L	-46.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nicolas Mejia	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	381	47%179 W · 202 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Nicolas Mejia	51c	29.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	222	58.1%129 W · 93 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Nicolas Mejia	43c	27.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	3,901	50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L	-13.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf48e…1e01backed Nicolas Mejia	55c	23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+5.0wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28a3…c711backed Shintaro Mochizuki	48c	22.11$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Nicolas Mejia	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,142	47.3%540 W · 602 L	+65.6wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f6a…8ec7backed Nicolas Mejia	60c	18.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Shintaro Mochizuki	65c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.96	572	52.3%299 W · 273 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cap Cana: Nicolas Mejia vs Shintaro Mochizuki

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market