TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof 3DMAX, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$985,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $985,670 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked 3DMAX52c108,657$57,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,622.1142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked 3DMAX53c107,894$56,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,913.5639249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Liquid38c100,645$38,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,146.3622049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb2…8586backed 3DMAX44c60,372$26,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,540.513961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked 3DMAX45c33,333$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,333.3322354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Liquid20c29,988$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997.617943%34 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid54c29,530$16,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,044.7483652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liquid11c27,730$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.123,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX43c26,679$11,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,165.8272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Liquid55c20,023$10,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,962.923855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Liquid56c20,011$11,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,187.83537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Liquid55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00041649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Liquid55c18,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,90010551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Liquid49c12,605$6,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,191.1342142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Liquid56c12,177$6,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,819.0622849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed 3DMAX77c11,931$9,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,696.482240.9%9 W · 13 L-5.2wins-0.24per pick65cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed 3DMAX76c10,120$7,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.126656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Liquid53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Liquid55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5001464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed 3DMAX48c9,500$4,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,903.844344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Liquid25c8,797$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.9832552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked 3DMAX48c8,310$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,309.925751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Liquid55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.8235153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Liquid55c7,856$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.681,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4888…c7d3backed Liquid57c7,127$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,042.871050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked 3DMAX43c7,000$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.912736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked 3DMAX49c6,530$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.3916448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed 3DMAX46c6,500$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,51055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Liquid19c6,399$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.659153.8%49 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Liquid54c6,251$3,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,393.9110952.3%57 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid56c6,000$3,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3301,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Liquid50c6,000$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,024.991,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Liquid52c5,763$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99781751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 3DMAX46c5,680$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.451,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Liquid57c5,310$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.2912328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Liquid27c5,309$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.6746843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Liquid55c5,291$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.978951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Liquid52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Liquid56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9945848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Liquid58c4,752$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75019834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Liquid16c4,426$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.114144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Liquid25c4,252$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06310251%52 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Liquid53c4,090$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.8184454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked 3DMAX44c4,000$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed 3DMAX51c3,923$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.42556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Liquid55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Liquid56c3,573$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.9812742.5%54 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed 3DMAX45c3,563$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.9117240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Liquid13c3,556$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.133119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-64.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Liquid57c3,507$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Liquid49c3,444$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.6897952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…0c8dbacked Liquid48c3,391$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked 3DMAX46c3,210$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.435850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Liquid32c3,205$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01520838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Liquid56c3,200$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79284658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked 3DMAX44c3,160$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.4127133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Liquid55c2,990$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.516553.8%35 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Liquid55c2,741$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.5460853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Liquid55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid25c2,696$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.397,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Liquid24c2,579$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.1917042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Liquid5c2,530$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.852837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed 3DMAX63c2,500$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.0657358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 3DMAX45c2,494$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.385,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Liquid57c2,456$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Liquid21c2,310$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.215760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Liquid17c2,231$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.942,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked 3DMAX46c2,200$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1885855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked 3DMAX46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.913132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Liquid55c2,100$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1558846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e7…705bbacked Liquid28c1,992$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa9…ed7dbacked Liquid50c1,982$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.222347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed 3DMAX71c1,965$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.363756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Liquid53c1,900$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00778639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed 3DMAX45c1,887$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.985149%25 W · 26 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Liquid25c1,824$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.978944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Liquid55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.995565.5%36 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed 3DMAX66c1,800$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.258651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Liquid57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Liquid2c1,749$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7719642.9%84 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Liquid25c1,721$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6361228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Liquid17c1,635$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.026,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Liquid34c1,632$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.454967.3%33 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Liquid22c1,622$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.2813952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Liquid57c1,600$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9128847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe704…b250backed Liquid25c1,578$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.5811143.2%48 W · 63 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed Liquid56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Liquid27c1,500$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.958562.4%53 W · 32 L+14.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Liquid39c1,450$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.4344657.2%255 W · 191 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Liquid23c1,423$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.545,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf44…0bbdbacked Liquid22c1,420$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.223033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Liquid24c1,410$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.2210550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked 3DMAX71c1,395$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.711,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Liquid56c1,394$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7751968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+49%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c4…9603backed Liquid57c1,377$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Liquid56c1,339$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7508951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Liquid17c1,301$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.933,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked 3DMAX64c1,284$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.276544.6%29 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed 3DMAX79c1,272$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.1332653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c97…fad7backed 3DMAX74c1,270$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.