TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfaa9…ed7d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$518.21
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.13
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$126.22
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$94.79
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$904.95
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.33
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winnerbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.31
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 1 Winnerbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.69
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+203%+$25.95
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffsbacked ShindeN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.99
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.72
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$37.42
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+72.7%+$42.17
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$999.22
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 1 Winnerbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$97.72
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+44.9%+$286.55
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+131.1%+$510.54
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 2 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+598.5%+$1,002.59
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+170.4%+$67.67
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+151%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$151.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$34.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.