TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof M80, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,052,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,052,956 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 801 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb0cb…85babacked M8050c306,151$153,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,956.815648.1%75 W · 81 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked M8051c150,000$76,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,00039249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked M8050c148,501$73,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,765.3942440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd9…3373backed M8051c147,732$74,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,847.756752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Liquid48c126,326$60,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,480.1222049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid50c107,348$53,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,903.0183652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Liquid49c69,347$34,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,040.9821048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Liquid49c62,842$31,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,817.1833043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f84…e4b4backed M800c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50aa…0003backed M800c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Liquid50c44,718$22,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,358.775444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Liquid50c44,172$22,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,086.0810551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Liquid50c40,000$19,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,140.277147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Liquid48c39,312$18,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,495.1741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Liquid49c38,173$18,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,488.4317148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Liquid50c31,074$15,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,646.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+147.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked M8023c28,253$6,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,432.141723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed M8021c26,397$5,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,429.6288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Liquid50c25,000$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,50016449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Liquid46c24,518$11,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,314.8311655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Liquid50c21,567$10,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,783.354557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Liquid49c21,000$10,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,75035153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Liquid49c20,203$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,203.571464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked M8053c18,850$9,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,990.522354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Liquid45c18,813$8,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,392.7116240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked M8051c18,000$9,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,18015245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed M8055c17,366$9,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,540.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked M8051c16,997$8,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,668.4818550.8%94 W · 91 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked M8027c16,205$4,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,430.335850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Liquid45c15,869$7,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,766.5919549.7%97 W · 98 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x621d…515abacked M803c15,467$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Liquid49c15,462$7,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,885.766555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked M8050c15,335$7,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,672.541,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Liquid50c14,751$7,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,411.869256.5%52 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed M8053c14,000$7,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4209551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Liquid51c13,498$6,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,614.046450%32 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Liquid50c13,395$6,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,697.2912552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Liquid48c13,376$6,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,931.6812649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed M8055c13,358$7,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,357.946656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Liquid50c12,079$6,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,057.2197040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e9…fcc9backed M8050c12,023$6,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,011.645954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Liquid50c12,000$6,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,96012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Liquid49c11,375$5,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,782.6112653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked M8046c11,154$5,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,186.281,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Liquid51c10,553$5,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,165.698951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe36…d9a4backed M805c10,425$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5191457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x669c…7c68backed Liquid50c10,197$5,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,098.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Liquid50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Liquid51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9007940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Liquid51c9,704$4,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,790.843855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked M8050c9,545$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,77516448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc02…aeabbacked M8050c9,330$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,690.041741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed M8052c9,112$4,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,706.7272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Liquid51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,41023145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed M8052c9,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,679.9967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Liquid32c9,000$2,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,152.6119949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked M8029c8,790$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.262,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Liquid51c8,271$4,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.785855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed M8050c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00019645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Liquid47c7,913$3,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,220.151,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Liquid50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked M8051c6,820$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Liquid48c6,630$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,430.0415141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed M8048c6,551$3,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,128.3975450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liquid48c6,491$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.53,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed M8038c6,170$2,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.026,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed M8052c6,155$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.837946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Liquid48c5,926$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.6284454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Liquid51c5,890$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.2342142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Liquid48c5,795$2,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.0698052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Liquid48c5,473$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.947256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Liquid50c5,320$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,66010952.3%57 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Liquid50c5,000$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.177537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Liquid48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Liquid18c4,935$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,046.4330726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf835…c527backed M8049c4,853$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked M8051c4,770$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.4113845.7%63 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed M8052c4,768$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.2924262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked M8050c4,535$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.0529046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Liquid59c4,460$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.924551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed M8047c4,180$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.8341850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed M8050c4,030$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01512742.5%54 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed M8051c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Liquid50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked M8049c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Liquid29c4,000$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.2422550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb00a…c58cbacked M8052c3,990$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.298444%37 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Liquid51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.572556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed M8051c3,920$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.255236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Liquid77c3,832$2,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.8719834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked M8020c3,810$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76210138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked M8048c3,797$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.444546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Liquid51c3,698$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.0820539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Liquid61c3,652$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.191,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed M8044c3,474$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.8117240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Liquid50c3,420$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.668846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Liquid48c3,400$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76884958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Liquid47c3,372$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.3336645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed M8051c3,290$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.9425845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Liquid47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.494548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.