Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd851128a667ff4f37805ce75f9b8d9f66c6e61102e916b505ba473487c94ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $443,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 24c | 8,753$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.03 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…5108backed No | 1c | 8,014$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 60c | 6,952$4,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.15 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,767$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 63c | 6,755$4,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.44 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 19c | 6,571$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.21 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 27c | 5,219$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.92 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 62c | 5,041$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.13 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 4,105$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.32 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 58c | 3,416$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.59 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 77c | 3,126$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.28 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 49c | 2,914$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.48 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 72c | 2,700$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.48 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 53c | 2,450$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.57 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 3c | 2,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 66c | 2,273$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.36 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 43c | 2,266$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.77 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,253$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 59c | 2,000$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 1,632$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.23 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked No | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 50c | 1,600$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 24c | 1,593$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.94 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 35c | 1,585$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.83 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 45c | 1,537$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.24 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 1,504$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.8 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,499$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.96 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…5bd3backed Yes | 73c | 1,455$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 41c | 1,338$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed No | 6c | 1,302$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 12c | 1,284$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 3c | 1,277$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,245$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.5 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,229$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.81 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed No | 23c | 1,206$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.07 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 31c | 1,172$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.05 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…e2bfbacked No | 43c | 1,155$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…7847backed No | 1c | 1,145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 65c | 1,144$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.24 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 73c | 1,044$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.55 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 11c | 1,039$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 49c | 1,024$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.35 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 35c | 1,023$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.3 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 14c | 999.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 60c | 999.88$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 47c | 990.93$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.13 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked No | 9c | 989.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 65c | 984.31$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 947$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.18 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 44c | 934.82$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.04 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 50c | 916.94$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.24 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…50f9backed No | 6c | 909.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e965backed Yes | 32c | 898$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.44 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 75c | 880.1$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 71c | 849.98$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.49 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…b721backed Yes | 34c | 828.44$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…265cbacked Yes | 27c | 799.97$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb7…7331backed Yes | 63c | 788.09$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.51 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed No | 64c | 786.48$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.87 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 6c | 784.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 25c | 778.4$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.8 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 77c | 765.69$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.88 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked No | 8c | 764.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…3cb2backed No | 66c | 755.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.82 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 73c | 748.99$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.69 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 19c | 731$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 18cpaid | +475.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 27c | 723.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.33 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…177cbacked Yes | 74c | 699.99$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 45c | 669.99$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.49 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 73c | 661.78$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.68 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 78c | 625.72$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 27c | 605$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.88 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…1049backed Yes | 28c | 593.23$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.73 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 58c | 567.19$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.18 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 558.03$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.67 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 32c | 557.51$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.48 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 40c | 556.11$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.88 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…75abbacked No | 9c | 536.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 39c | 527.92$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.44 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 39c | 506.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.65 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 494.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…c3c0backed No | 66c | 452.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 450.75$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.9 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 53c | 442$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.74 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 69c | 433.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 54c | 416.37$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 27c | 399.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.73 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…5558backed No | 5c | 399$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 79c | 397.25$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…7e8bbacked Yes | 46c | 394.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 62c | 378.57$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…8719backed Yes | 77c | 368.53$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 41c | 367.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.26 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 27c | 356.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.1 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 40c | 350$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…90adbacked No | 6c | 347.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…814ebacked Yes | 30c | 310$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.