TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$380,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$443,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed No24c8,753$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.031,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d47…5108backed No1c8,014$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes60c6,952$4,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.1517919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c6,767$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.812,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes63c6,755$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.4418618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No19c6,571$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.2156429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No27c5,219$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.9213014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No62c5,041$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,148.1354675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes37c4,105$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.3222718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes58c3,416$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.5914137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes77c3,126$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.2846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes49c2,914$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.4824115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes72c2,700$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.4831722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes53c2,450$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.5718722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No3c2,300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc6…2b42backed No66c2,273$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.364770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes43c2,266$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.775635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c2,253$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.222401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No59c2,000$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18515164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes62c1,632$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.2319550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked No6c1,600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes50c1,600$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8065228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes24c1,593$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.9432716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes35c1,585$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.8311556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No45c1,537$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.2410857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c1,504$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.878811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes57c1,499$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.9660127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x665d…5bd3backed Yes73c1,455$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.361520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes41c1,338$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.56747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed No6c1,302$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.63250%0 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No12c1,284$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7612528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No3c1,277$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.331189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460c…d25fbacked Yes63c1,245$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.54325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes44c1,229$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.8110818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed No23c1,206$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0727316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes31c1,172$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.0515631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x580b…e2bfbacked No43c1,155$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37d2…7847backed No1c1,145$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.012339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes65c1,144$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.247628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes73c1,044$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.557132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked No11c1,039$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3518631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes49c1,024$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.3546137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes35c1,023$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33053817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No14c999.96$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…747abacked Yes60c999.88$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.484822.9%11 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes47c990.93$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.1313318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked No9c989.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes65c984.31$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.138828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes65c947$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes44c934.82$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0421034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes50c916.94$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.2488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f0…50f9backed No6c909.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes32c898$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.443212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes75c880.1$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6217628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No71c849.98$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.4941017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb82…b721backed Yes34c828.44$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.272330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x811e…265cbacked Yes27c799.97$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.981942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes63c788.09$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.513426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed No64c786.48$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.873408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed No6c784.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4824710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes25c778.4$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.82359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes77c765.69$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8813430.6%41 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cc…447cbacked No8c764.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf594…3cb2backed No66c755.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.824070%28 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes73c748.99$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6916532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed Yes19c731$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.83per pick18cpaid+475.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes27c723.33$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.3315819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…177cbacked Yes74c699.99$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1823432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+171.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes45c669.99$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.4923321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes73c661.78$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6810824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes78c625.72$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7223735.4%84 W · 153 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes27c605$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.8825023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05a…1049backed Yes28c593.23$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.734721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes58c567.19$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.1829225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c558.03$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6726167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes32c557.51$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.488622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes40c556.11$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.8819726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a1…75abbacked No9c536.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes39c527.92$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.4410610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes39c506.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.6526411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No24c494.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.53762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x111b…c3c0backed No66c452.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.94768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No55c450.75$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes53c442$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.742556%14 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes69c433.49$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.498127.2%22 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes54c416.37$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3722327.8%62 W · 161 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes27c399.62$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.7319317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x988e…5558backed No5c399$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes79c397.25$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.427035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e91…7e8bbacked Yes46c394.11$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.881553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes62c378.57$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4388017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227d…8719backed Yes77c368.53$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.967429.7%22 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes41c367.26$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2638614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes27c356.68$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.19626%25 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes40c350$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.522824.1%55 W · 173 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x343c…90adbacked No6c347.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes30c310$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.92817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.