Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90bb4c9b8fdafccee5359706860565115ae3f19264469a719c696b0762ccd16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $553,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $496,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $553,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 2c | 40,370$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…caabbacked Yes | 0c | 26,076$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 1c | 25,667$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.93 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 0c | 22,714$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 3c | 17,393$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.63 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 0c | 12,632$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 11,707$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 0c | 10,002$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 2c | 9,425$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 3c | 8,585$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.25 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,004$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.83 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 6c | 5,282$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.37 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 12c | 5,160$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 5,127$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…cc19backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 3c | 4,469$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,889$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 3c | 3,743$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,364$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 3c | 3,241$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 1c | 2,828$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 2,799$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,667$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 2,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,539$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…7423backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,494$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 4c | 2,459$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 8c | 2,260$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 2,230$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…a509backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,985$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 6c | 1,636$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,532$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed Yes | 2c | 1,443$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,374$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -32%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…55ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,214$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 1,198$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…776cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,049$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 6c | 1,028$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9b…934ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,011$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 5c | 1,008$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…067bbacked Yes | 6c | 878.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 5c | 832.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 831.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 829.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 6c | 740.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 6c | 719.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 717.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 699.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 7c | 697.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 5c | 686.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 4c | 683.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 5c | 682.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…963bbacked Yes | 7c | 675.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e965backed Yes | 5c | 670$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccc…82c4backed Yes | 5c | 608.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 6c | 571.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 6c | 565.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x513c…9931backed Yes | 5c | 556.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 543.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 7c | 534.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 8c | 515$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 511.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 3c | 505.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 2c | 503.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…1049backed Yes | 5c | 494.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 8c | 486.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 459.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…cf10backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…1d4abacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 4c | 399.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 4c | 397.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 389.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…1381backed Yes | 5c | 362.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…580ebacked Yes | 7c | 355.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…2bd6backed Yes | 8c | 332.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…1ba1backed Yes | 6c | 322.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 322.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 5c | 322$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…57d2backed Yes | 8c | 316.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…3badbacked Yes | 5c | 314.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 311.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…cc35backed Yes | 6c | 311.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…80f5backed Yes | 3c | 308.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 4c | 301.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 4c | 300.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 164 | 20.7%34 W · 130 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…778dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.