TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe827…5209backed No0c5,385$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.774226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2968…ce4cbacked No3c2,925$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+145.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c2,833$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.651,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked Yes67c2,560$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.723060%18 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+92%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c1,910$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.61931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No5c1,771$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.673330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes33c1,739$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.297458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed No5c1,707$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.371926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes74c1,613$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.7810137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea63…1ebcbacked No7c1,592$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes36c1,208$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.5418746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes42c1,177$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked No7c1,071$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed No2c983.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.733625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef5…5ee2backed No32c930.17$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.211717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No66c830.84$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.646663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes36c796.08$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.333560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes67c693.75$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.242454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No64c665.99$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No16c585.78$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.382147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No9c500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.852030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No26c464.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.797656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed No4c445.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.913915.4%6 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes70c432.89$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.076549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes20c401.96$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.053729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3146…d2febacked No5c395.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No69c329.91$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.711163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No77c323.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.159546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…1743backed Yes36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+203.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes70c275.76$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6915155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes34c270.98$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.981723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc460…e689backed No6c255.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-79%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes16c250$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21010338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No10c228.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.852365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed No8c209.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.625339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b1…c7efbacked No11c192.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.27130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes63c157.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.016459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes65c157.41$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.532718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes18c150$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes16c145.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.429837.8%37 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No35c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…cce5backed Yes19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.581435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No63c126.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.063568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes35c126$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc462…d348backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…25a8backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.654257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Yes35c113.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cea…2d58backed Yes31c101$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c101$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.691,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6517355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x483b…8911backed No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7092…2ed1backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.995343.4%23 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c85.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.678817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x261c…a6d5backed Yes35c83.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes79c80.56$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.675347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c04…7031backed Yes17c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2701…6d65backed Yes54c74.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No18c62.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4724035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc727…a011backed Yes54c61.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e0…1482backed Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No43c56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes57c56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.086241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No39c55.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes34c42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7211538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279340.9%38 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3134…4021backed No64c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bd…275dbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b95…2ea8backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…b166backed Yes32c33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…89febacked Yes54c28.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No45c23.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x964a…51ddbacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.