Us Politics · resolved market
Will between 260 and 269 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6e5905358eadc6035079da8c383cb474acaedf60e79765dba45934279fba778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ad1…1743backed Yes | 9c | 4,300$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,711$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,970$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 547$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 9c | 404$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 6c | 371.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…da3fbacked Yes | 9c | 336.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 13c | 306.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 5c | 269.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 251.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 9c | 250.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will between 260 and 269 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?this page
- Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?Yes won
- Will between 210 and 219 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 220 and 229 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 230 and 234 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 235 and 239 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 240 and 244 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 245 and 249 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 250 and 254 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 255 and 259 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 270 and 279 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 280 and 289 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 290 and 299 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will fewer than 210 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will no house vote on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill occur by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.