NFL · resolved market
Will Super Bowl LX have at least 140M viewers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770318c4b30d574d1981f70712a675b4b323d11861bef016d6960cb7cf0ca166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,184$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.32 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,709$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.65 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…dbb8backed Yes | 33c | 1,517$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed No | 78c | 1,203$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 7c | 999.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 76c | 892.35$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…a280backed Yes | 23c | 862.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Yes | 5c | 541.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 448.68$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…fb22backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…898ebacked Yes | 26c | 396.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 325.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaced…e23abacked Yes | 35c | 282.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed No | 65c | 274.59$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed Yes | 5c | 262.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…0756backed Yes | 25c | 202.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e8…2815backed Yes | 17c | 200.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 161.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…21e4backed Yes | 22c | 160.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…b896backed Yes | 25c | 154.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked No | 80c | 151.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 80c | 149.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed Yes | 11c | 143.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7110…d8a2backed Yes | 22c | 143.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 12c | 133.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 26c | 132$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…3091backed Yes | 17c | 117.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 117.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…19a6backed Yes | 26c | 115.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae9…5f14backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 76.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…caf5backed Yes | 15c | 65.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…eccdbacked No | 79c | 31.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Super Bowl LX have at least 140M viewers?this page
- Will Super Bowl LX have between 116M and 120M viewers?No won
- Will Super Bowl LX have between 120M and 124M viewers?No won
- Will Super Bowl LX have between 124M and 128M viewers?Yes won
- Will Super Bowl LX have between 128M and 132M viewers?No won
- Will Super Bowl LX have between 132M and 136M viewers?No won
- Will Super Bowl LX have between 136M and 140M viewers?No won
- Will Super Bowl LX have less than 116M viewers?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.