TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Super Bowl LX have between 124M and 128M viewers?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed No8c1,250$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.052516%4 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No9c1,110$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No48c602.93$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.857439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes18c542.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13a0…012dbacked Yes24c412.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c399.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9910143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf97…4653backed Yes24c374.86$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes10c294.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.911921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98f8…fcaebacked No29c287.88$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes13c281.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.993732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes17c272.32$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes19c205.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.825815.5%9 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8c…b507backed Yes9c190$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+104%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f5…8d2abacked Yes14c178.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.57450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+128.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No54c170$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.458047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Yes23c162.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.22236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No76c152.64$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.013063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfe…b139backed No31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffa6…4bbebacked No75c148.42$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.63560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Yes19c136.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.844953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6afc…f5e9backed Yes13c135$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+200.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes16c134.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.711154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+83.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes21c132.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc59…fce1backed Yes23c131.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes24c128.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.021758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes20c106$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c101.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.349045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ad…5134backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+159.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7e…8178backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+189.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c94.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.155933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ce…f38abacked Yes13c92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.421450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf95…694dbacked Yes23c91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5752828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No50c87.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.044751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Yes23c85.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No74c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.44843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes18c57.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f93…d39cbacked Yes20c55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…0f1dbacked Yes30c54.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+230.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes68c52.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c49.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.786230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No76c49.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.212955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.25955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.7wins-0.33per pick63cpaid-57.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x310d…2b57backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.911450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.