AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a6b222354f86941b5fb5571a9256b8db85d6ab468ba7f865e43cefbfb83b812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,278,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $889,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,278,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 47,813$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 36,846$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.05 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 36,009$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.79 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 31,961$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 5c | 29,914$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.96 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 26,468$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.25 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 1c | 26,334$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 24,505$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.4 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…5831backed Yes | 0c | 24,314$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…72fabacked Yes | 5c | 23,255$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 19,741$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.64 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 18,932$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.62 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…403ebacked Yes | 6c | 14,180$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…3f7dbacked Yes | 2c | 13,990$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 13,667$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.79 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 4c | 12,468$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 6c | 12,166$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 6c | 12,126$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 4c | 11,836$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.39 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…5e32backed Yes | 4c | 11,599$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 10,969$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.68 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…fa4dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,639$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed Yes | 6c | 10,225$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,564$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 9,291$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 6c | 9,129$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 5c | 8,934$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…5b3cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,929$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 8,572$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.71 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 6c | 8,403$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.94 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 2c | 7,684$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.55 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,633$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f2…4b52backed Yes | 1c | 7,558$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 7,527$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 7,526$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 7,485$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.86 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 7,427$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…dce3backed Yes | 1c | 7,189$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 7,103$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.61 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…902cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,493$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 5c | 6,387$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.23 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…fdffbacked Yes | 2c | 6,190$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…e28bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,026$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…5f42backed Yes | 4c | 5,996$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes | 7c | 5,879$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 5,568$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.09 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,356$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e2…7039backed Yes | 1c | 5,228$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 4c | 5,109$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.9 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 7c | 5,086$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.57 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.27 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…5471backed Yes | 1c | 4,730$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…4141backed Yes | 1c | 4,730$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…d1fabacked Yes | 4c | 4,727$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 4,701$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,526$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.91 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a02…d0b8backed Yes | 1c | 4,422$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 5c | 4,380$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,264$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b9…9acebacked Yes | 4c | 4,250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…adb3backed Yes | 2c | 4,218$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3f…da5bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,204$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,194$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…066bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,988$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 6c | 3,949$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.61 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…b458backed Yes | 3c | 3,771$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 4c | 3,764$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.16 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,744$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Yes | 6c | 3,611$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 4c | 3,555$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 5c | 3,328$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 6c | 3,200$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked Yes | 29c | 3,014$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 3c | 3,010$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…a57dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,010$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…b385backed Yes | 2c | 2,991$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,846$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,845$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…37d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,593$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,562$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf0…4964backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,420$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…41c4backed Yes | 4c | 2,389$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…193fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,367$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…5d03backed Yes | 3c | 2,333$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 2,314$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 4c | 2,305$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 3c | 2,256$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…b68fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 6c | 2,185$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4452…cebbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,076$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace8…5524backed Yes | 2c | 2,039$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 6c | 2,027$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,933$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…5672backed Yes | 5c | 1,913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,911$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.