AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32a00faf9ac4f49c0a2742341304513d6816bec08219bfc48f85d7a013c9ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,937,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,937,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe2…64bcbacked Yes | 0c | 337,832$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7d…3ab9backed Yes | 0c | 313,808$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…f676backed Yes | 0c | 242,433$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 122,560$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…6414backed Yes | 0c | 115,531$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 60,958$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 60,208$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…a57dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,254$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes | 0c | 49,575$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,087$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 21,211$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a9…e540backed Yes | 0c | 12,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…8ec4backed Yes | 0c | 12,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…c32abacked Yes | 0c | 12,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb356…dd53backed Yes | 0c | 12,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb3…3913backed Yes | 0c | 12,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…1e93backed Yes | 0c | 12,225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6632…68b2backed Yes | 0c | 11,452$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2650…c7abbacked Yes | 0c | 11,452$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 11,124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…7db9backed Yes | 0c | 10,452$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…e246backed Yes | 0c | 10,452$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…57aabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…b68fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,013$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fd…8aa5backed Yes | 0c | 4,414$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.