AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d601dfca59c3968bc4123313a7bdf2352256f427d6c543f0ec06b6b5b453bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,310,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $835,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,310,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 325,703$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.28 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 81,990$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,790$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…4f1cbacked Yes | 0c | 34,746$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe104…69b0backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 0c | 32,091$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 28,781$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…c977backed Yes | 0c | 25,236$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…8c3dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,983$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 19,757$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 18,839$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…7f5abacked Yes | 0c | 16,521$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…7a35backed Yes | 0c | 14,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,607$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…b385backed Yes | 0c | 10,099$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,473$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 0c | 8,109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f59…0441backed Yes | 0c | 8,066$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…fb31backed Yes | 0c | 6,450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 6,344$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…e23abacked Yes | 0c | 6,333$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 6,253$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,159$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 5,949$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,567$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…ccbfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…dd81backed Yes | 1c | 5,247$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa7…940dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d6cebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560f…5af7backed Yes | 0c | 4,657$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +274.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,439$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…d13cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,413$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…d3d3backed Yes | 0c | 3,269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…9663backed Yes | 1c | 2,879$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…4221backed Yes | 0c | 2,722$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e21…5d28backed Yes | 0c | 2,695$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…f8babacked Yes | 1c | 2,640$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…0265backed Yes | 0c | 2,541$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ee…a4bebacked Yes | 11c | 87.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.