TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,618,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$976,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,618,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c127,766$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.234216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c89,383$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.872920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c33,925$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.68634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c28,715$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.312522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes1c28,420$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.23120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa607…2caebacked Yes0c25,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed Yes3c24,643$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c23,677$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3819011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes1c20,667$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.067611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c20,445$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.426291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8960…87b5backed Yes1c20,150$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes1c20,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c19,152$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.98553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5783…94e3backed Yes0c18,677$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf755…b1e0backed Yes0c18,557$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c18,295$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.482560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes1c18,245$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.914814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes1c18,141$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c15,489$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.59865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb2…789abacked Yes1c14,421$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes2c13,820$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.577238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes2c13,461$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.793212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee23…813dbacked Yes1c13,258$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880c…de6fbacked Yes1c11,090$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Yes1c10,536$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8d…b77fbacked Yes1c9,987$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c3…d002backed Yes1c9,911$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes1c9,849$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.04531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c9,826$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.843042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c9,241$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.992792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes1c8,632$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes2c8,525$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes1c8,322$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.162142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c8,203$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.73811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f9…ebb3backed Yes1c7,518$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c7,228$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.59700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c7,170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.71870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x470a…7fa2backed Yes2c6,900$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c6,818$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.08850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02f2…b8d5backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c6,580$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1221713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes2c6,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.626216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c5,905$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.622114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes2c5,872$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed Yes2c5,853$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes1c5,842$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.074610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8df…abd7backed Yes0c5,817$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1aa…72c8backed Yes1c5,797$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes2c5,756$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.28219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-82.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3824…41c4backed Yes2c5,699$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c5,639$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe30…edc0backed Yes1c5,559$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f63…b385backed Yes1c5,531$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa228…a639backed Yes1c5,297$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0345…b68fbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abf…bebfbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4661…eb08backed Yes2c5,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9d…3eb8backed Yes1c5,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c4,987$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.08724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes1c4,984$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afa…10eabacked Yes1c4,666$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.451225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes1c4,443$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed Yes1c4,438$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes2c4,349$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.232030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c4,075$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.422110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb46…2e9ebacked Yes2c4,034$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes1c4,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4680%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206f…4366backed Yes2c3,960$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes2c3,856$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.871822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes2c3,638$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe7…4da7backed Yes1c3,587$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x315c…217bbacked Yes1c3,488$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes1c3,450$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,272$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.681754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…308bbacked Yes1c3,248$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes1c3,246$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.467330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes3c3,158$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.196627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dba…219bbacked Yes1c3,153$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c3,108$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.16717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef2f…f807backed Yes0c2,980$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea2…8ed6backed Yes1c2,886$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes2c2,821$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.371414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+73.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5475…0d85backed Yes1c2,800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0931…55bebacked Yes1c2,799$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ef…75c8backed Yes1c2,792$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…2aa5backed Yes2c2,781$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…3a0bbacked Yes1c2,770$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6419…8eb2backed Yes1c2,745$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes1c2,689$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.983231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,669$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.231,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…a2abbacked Yes0c2,641$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55c…1328backed Yes0c2,634$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c7…5c6ebacked Yes0c2,607$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c6…4014backed Yes1c2,587$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b2…ee82backed Yes1c2,575$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedef…c2ebbacked Yes1c2,541$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfda…9614backed Yes2c2,535$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes1c2,515$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2d…1c72backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.