AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8e077887e5ba25d3931cdb816efdca642149bf7ea02605c5163f1601bd8421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,618,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $976,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,618,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 1c | 127,766$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.23 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 89,383$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 33,925$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 28,715$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.31 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,420$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 3c | 24,643$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 23,677$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.38 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 1c | 20,667$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.06 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 20,445$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…87b5backed Yes | 1c | 20,150$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,152$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5783…94e3backed Yes | 0c | 18,677$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…b1e0backed Yes | 0c | 18,557$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 18,295$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.48 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 18,245$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.91 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 1c | 18,141$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.53 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 15,489$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…789abacked Yes | 1c | 14,421$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,820$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.57 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 13,461$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.79 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee23…813dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,258$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…de6fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,090$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 1c | 10,536$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…b77fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,987$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 1c | 9,911$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 1c | 9,849$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 9,826$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 9,241$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,632$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 2c | 8,525$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 1c | 8,322$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,203$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f9…ebb3backed Yes | 1c | 7,518$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 7,228$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 7,170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470a…7fa2backed Yes | 2c | 6,900$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 6,818$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…b8d5backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,580$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 1c | 5,905$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 2c | 5,872$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 2c | 5,853$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 1c | 5,842$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 0c | 5,817$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…72c8backed Yes | 1c | 5,797$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 2c | 5,756$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…41c4backed Yes | 2c | 5,699$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,639$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…edc0backed Yes | 1c | 5,559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…b385backed Yes | 1c | 5,531$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…a639backed Yes | 1c | 5,297$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…b68fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…bebfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4661…eb08backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9d…3eb8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,987$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 1c | 4,984$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…10eabacked Yes | 1c | 4,666$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 1c | 4,443$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 4,438$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,349$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 4,075$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb46…2e9ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,034$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206f…4366backed Yes | 2c | 3,960$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 2c | 3,856$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 2c | 3,638$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…4da7backed Yes | 1c | 3,587$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…217bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,488$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…e163backed Yes | 1c | 3,450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,272$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,248$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 1c | 3,246$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 3,158$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…219bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,153$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 3,108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…f807backed Yes | 0c | 2,980$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea2…8ed6backed Yes | 1c | 2,886$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 2c | 2,821$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5475…0d85backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,799$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…75c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,792$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…2aa5backed Yes | 2c | 2,781$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…3a0bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,770$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…8eb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,745$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,689$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,669$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…a2abbacked Yes | 0c | 2,641$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…1328backed Yes | 0c | 2,634$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c7…5c6ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,607$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…4014backed Yes | 1c | 2,587$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…ee82backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedef…c2ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,541$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…9614backed Yes | 2c | 2,535$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes | 1c | 2,515$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…1c72backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.