TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,700,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,879,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,700,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8df…abd7backed No2c41,697$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.95229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No3c36,805$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.21634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed No9c28,091$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c22,279$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.772522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No7c19,180$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.347611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e91…6007backed No1c18,277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No4c17,619$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.67553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c16,936$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.842560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No3c15,216$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.454814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked No7c15,031$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No4c13,908$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.82865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed No8c12,203$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c12,110$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.692792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c11,780$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.843042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No6c11,351$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.7619011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No7c9,836$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.796216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No5c9,615$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.85870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No5c9,370$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.46850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d54…4cddbacked No11c8,936$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f7…c472backed No6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc76…0ad0backed No5c7,464$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.22142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No7c6,840$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.838923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No3c6,593$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.29717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No2c5,783$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.94767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No8c5,397$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.720148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No5c5,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No8c4,968$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3115452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No3c4,292$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.463627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No7c3,884$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.747330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No4c3,695$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.324325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3924…e49bbacked No4c3,663$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8960…87b5backed No7c3,520$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No1c3,373$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.613411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No1c3,154$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.32175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c2…94c0backed No5c3,064$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No14c2,952$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.917238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c2,700$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No7c2,580$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.41724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No3c2,539$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.954610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No5c2,400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No3c2,392$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6996…408dbacked Yes79c2,271$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed No9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed No6c2,104$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348f…709dbacked No5c2,089$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.45922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c9…d697backed No8c2,080$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1272…5b3cbacked No1c2,054$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No5c2,029$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4511723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560d…c148backed No6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No10c2,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2108543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No5c1,955$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7114337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes74c1,919$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.827636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72c0…d9ffbacked No1c1,872$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No7c1,771$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.992416.7%4 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f63…b385backed No3c1,708$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed No3c1,686$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62b9…9acebacked No6c1,681$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed No6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4703…ce7fbacked No8c1,644$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.81714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc1…e8e4backed No12c1,614$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c8…f5dcbacked No2c1,520$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf47c…2404backed No2c1,437$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,360$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…3700backed No6c1,293$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff4…7a08backed No1c1,193$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b2…f6c3backed No6c1,142$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa426…06d9backed No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No9c1,050$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5120418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No8c1,041$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6210…9f18backed No5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No7c999.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.996716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No6c914.11$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.884134.1%14 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No3c913$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.223231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No10c909.44$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6340712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c897.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8926312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa45…4bffbacked No2c873.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No6c783.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c757.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be8…cc18backed No1c717.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed No4c689.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc199…c67cbacked No3c649.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1b…72fabacked No3c640.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x258b…1032backed Yes79c636.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc251…894dbacked No7c626$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x672a…04e8backed No8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af8…401abacked No5c619.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed No2c606.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.026016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7353…eb54backed No2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66e…61d9backed No8c587.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754c…ce51backed No3c586.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8e…4bb1backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c8…e1a2backed No3c555.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c3…3d81backed No8c551.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfda…9614backed No9c544.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c35…0476backed No5c500.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3473…8c3dbacked No10c500.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.