AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea63dc8774846a957d14506c4c1e33dc16bed7c3ea1f154b8e8399ac0ba63d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,330,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $840,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,330,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 160,458$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.62 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 45,967$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 30,383$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 1c | 26,153$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 0c | 22,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 19,882$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…4f1cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,043$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 17,499$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…2245backed Yes | 1c | 16,423$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…051fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 12,632$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…9732backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 12,302$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…4c10backed Yes | 1c | 11,030$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f9…ebb3backed Yes | 0c | 10,632$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,346$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…c977backed Yes | 1c | 10,285$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…e206backed Yes | 0c | 10,121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf317…9a95backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c48…8576backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…d173backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…5831backed Yes | 1c | 9,551$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…0ca0backed Yes | 0c | 8,685$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 0c | 8,324$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,270$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…419abacked Yes | 0c | 8,208$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 0c | 7,486$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 1c | 7,349$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,967$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 1c | 6,961$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 1c | 6,779$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754c…ce51backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 0c | 6,586$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0c…7899backed Yes | 0c | 6,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 0c | 6,312$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 5,352$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 1c | 5,302$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 0c | 5,189$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…e163backed Yes | 0c | 5,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…2c33backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…188dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b9…9acebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 0c | 4,997$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 4,879$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes | 0c | 4,799$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…0126backed Yes | 1c | 4,304$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…274fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,223$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…fd35backed Yes | 0c | 4,084$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…b2f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…bcaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,938$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 0c | 3,905$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 1c | 3,887$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 0c | 3,807$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 3,782$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 1c | 3,744$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2f…6284backed Yes | 1c | 3,662$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 0c | 3,588$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128b…9ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,462$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 1c | 3,371$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…204cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,286$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 0c | 2,997$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…5e36backed Yes | 1c | 2,820$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…03e9backed Yes | 0c | 2,780$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…5430backed Yes | 0c | 2,768$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…fb33backed Yes | 0c | 2,625$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,521$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…5905backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…e55cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…72f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 3cpaid | +438.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 1c | 2,242$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…0f07backed Yes | 1c | 2,233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…219bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,091$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3579backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…6f43backed Yes | 1c | 1,933$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,646$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…459fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,585$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,526$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…f8babacked Yes | 1c | 1,436$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…c54abacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe55…4449backed Yes | 1c | 1,165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…85d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,077$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…6ef0backed Yes | 1c | 1,053$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 4c | 998.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.