TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,330,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$840,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,330,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c160,458$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.622920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes0c45,967$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.88531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes0c30,383$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.91700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes1c26,153$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…d002backed Yes0c22,141$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c19,882$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.481754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f0…4f1cbacked Yes0c19,043$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c17,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c17,499$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.036291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d6…2245backed Yes1c16,423$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f0…051fbacked Yes0c14,900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c12,632$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.312522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470f…9732backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c12,302$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.792560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fef…4c10backed Yes1c11,030$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f9…ebb3backed Yes0c10,632$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes0c10,346$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…c977backed Yes1c10,285$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b65…e206backed Yes0c10,121$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c10,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf317…9a95backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c48…8576backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa154…d173backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6484…5831backed Yes1c9,551$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…0ca0backed Yes0c8,685$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+186.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes0c8,324$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes0c8,270$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe450…419abacked Yes0c8,208$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes0c7,486$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.474216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x194a…7005backed Yes1c7,349$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes1c6,967$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes1c6,961$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.92837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes1c6,779$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754c…ce51backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes0c6,586$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.124814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e0c…7899backed Yes0c6,558$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes0c6,312$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.74865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c5,352$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes1c5,302$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes0c5,189$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes0c5,010$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17dc…2c33backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccc…188dbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b9…9acebacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes0c4,997$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.744610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes0c4,879$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.843042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes0c4,799$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes0c4,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b3…0126backed Yes1c4,304$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…274fbacked Yes0c4,223$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a0…fd35backed Yes0c4,084$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f20…b2f4backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6210…9f18backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes0c4,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.526428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea66…bcaabacked Yes1c3,938$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes0c3,905$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c83…0f55backed Yes1c3,887$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c3,869$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes0c3,807$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c3,782$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.356627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4177…bbe4backed Yes1c3,744$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235221.2%11 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+145.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f2f…6284backed Yes1c3,662$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes0c3,588$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x128b…9ccfbacked Yes1c3,462$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes1c3,371$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.693212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6353…204cbacked Yes1c3,286$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes0c2,997$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.897611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca86…5e36backed Yes1c2,820$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef5…03e9backed Yes0c2,780$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0c…5430backed Yes0c2,768$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7033…fb33backed Yes0c2,625$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes1c2,521$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad3e…5905backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc60…e55cbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05af…72f1backed Yes1c2,410$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick3cpaid+438.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes1c2,242$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cee…0f07backed Yes1c2,233$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dba…219bbacked Yes1c2,091$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37b…3579backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b4…6f43backed Yes1c1,933$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes1c1,646$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.045221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9a…459fbacked Yes1c1,585$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6157…b22ebacked Yes1c1,526$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…f8babacked Yes1c1,436$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b7…cf78backed Yes1c1,359$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes1c1,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe55…4449backed Yes1c1,165$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…85d2backed Yes1c1,077$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,075$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…6ef0backed Yes1c1,053$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fbc…3533backed Yes4c998.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.27230%0 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.