AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed8813bf297831ea1a0088bafc5512d1e4d973622a886188dd6ce04cff868238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 22c | 1,315$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 38c | 265.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed Yes | 21c | 210.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 199.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 43c | 193.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 36c | 186.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…ef6abacked No | 63c | 158.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 78c | 129.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 33c | 102.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 93.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…5ffbbacked Yes | 25c | 80.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 75c | 79.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 64c | 77.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 64c | 68.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 29c | 66.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 49.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…1aa3backed Yes | 44c | 47.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…a146backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 36c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…626cbacked Yes | 40c | 31.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…b7f7backed Yes | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…9651backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 26.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 65c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…5991backed No | 58c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…06cbbacked No | 64c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…8c47backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.