TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, Aston Villa FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC72c22,074$15,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,115.154,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Arsenal FC43c14,999$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,549.666248.4%30 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arsenal FC45c14,530$6,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,007.886,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x132e…c724backed Aston Villa FC58c12,994$7,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,536.773050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Arsenal FC42c11,404$4,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,571.8521853.2%116 W · 102 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Aston Villa FC58c10,007$5,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,845.393154.8%17 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Aston Villa FC58c7,317$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,27519239.1%75 W · 117 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal FC38c7,303$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,492.42,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Aston Villa FC57c5,500$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1358939.3%35 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Aston Villa FC60c4,027$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.123053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Aston Villa FC58c3,706$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16719652%102 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Aston Villa FC57c3,500$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9952556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Aston Villa FC57c3,379$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.211833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Aston Villa FC16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arsenal FC41c2,971$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.662,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Aston Villa FC57c2,200$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ea8…ddc0backed Aston Villa FC57c2,200$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.212646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Aston Villa FC57c2,100$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.996650%33 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Aston Villa FC57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.995042%21 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Arsenal FC42c1,914$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.0839156%219 W · 172 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Aston Villa FC58c1,897$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Aston Villa FC55c1,750$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9658842%37 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Aston Villa FC58c1,711$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.051,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Arsenal FC41c1,619$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.4221965.3%143 W · 76 L+20.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Aston Villa FC56c1,516$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8509050%45 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Aston Villa FC57c1,516$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.2825648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Arsenal FC43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8552035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Aston Villa FC58c1,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8755339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Aston Villa FC56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84060728%170 W · 437 L+2.7wins0.00per pick28cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed Aston Villa FC59c1,474$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.187035.7%25 W · 45 L-10.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x763f…81e9backed Aston Villa FC73c1,375$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1c02…7fdcbacked Aston Villa FC58c1,309$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.36966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Arsenal FC43c1,296$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.5521253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Aston Villa FC57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5709843.9%43 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Arsenal FC44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56032158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked Arsenal FC42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5805431.5%17 W · 37 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Aston Villa FC57c999.97$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.982138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Arsenal FC42c887.97$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.026055%33 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6909…36b5backed Aston Villa FC57c843.86$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Arsenal FC40c800$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48036956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Aston Villa FC56c769.99$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.1916453.7%88 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aaa…5cfebacked Aston Villa FC58c755.01$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e2…8ea7backed Aston Villa FC57c710$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.72213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Aston Villa FC55c697.42$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.588243.9%36 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Aston Villa FC58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002850%14 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Aston Villa FC56c579.95$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.773256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Aston Villa FC60c553$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.810956%61 W · 48 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xad00…ebe1backed Arsenal FC46c543.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Arsenal FC39c507.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.5811343.4%49 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Arsenal FC43c504.23$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.912445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Aston Villa FC58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2907343.8%32 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Aston Villa FC61c490.94$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Arsenal FC41c482.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.566567.7%44 W · 21 L+12.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+41%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Arsenal FC41c470.18$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.0658445.9%268 W · 316 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf536…e40cbacked Arsenal FC44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5517234.9%60 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb86d…3c53backed Aston Villa FC57c432$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.244936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Arsenal FC43c396.19$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.838242.7%35 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ea…b369backed Arsenal FC44c392.52$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.811070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Aston Villa FC57c384.48$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1519357.5%111 W · 82 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Arsenal FC44c383.21$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.221,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Aston Villa FC58c379.31$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204621.7%10 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-51.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Aston Villa FC57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007632.9%25 W · 51 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3893…6e0cbacked Arsenal FC43c347.07$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.832240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Aston Villa FC58c299.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9959958.9%353 W · 246 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Aston Villa FC58c299.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17413450.7%68 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Arsenal FC43c277$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed Aston Villa FC57c263.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508259.8%49 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Arsenal FC46c252.42$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.941,00446.3%465 W · 539 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Aston Villa FC5c251.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5511712%14 W · 103 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Arsenal FC42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14518646.8%87 W · 99 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa122…9847backed Aston Villa FC66c225.59$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504839.6%19 W · 29 L-7.9wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-30.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5309…1975backed Aston Villa FC55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Arsenal FC40c180$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10837554.9%206 W · 169 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Arsenal FC40c180$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10837958%220 W · 159 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5489…c289backed Aston Villa FC59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…c2d6backed Aston Villa FC59c168.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd002…2ee8backed Aston Villa FC59c161.02$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957455.4%41 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Arsenal FC76c160.7$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2410433.7%35 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Aston Villa FC57c160$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.21450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Aston Villa FC58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Arsenal FC43c146.51$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5136036.1%130 W · 230 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Aston Villa FC57c139.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.85851.7%30 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a50…6c6bbacked Aston Villa FC59c135.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808332.5%27 W · 56 L-11.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Arsenal FC40c130$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7842048.6%204 W · 216 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370a…55ebbacked Aston Villa FC58c121.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Arsenal FC42c120$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.64742.6%20 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Arsenal FC40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7230554.8%167 W · 138 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Arsenal FC40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7225456.3%143 W · 111 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Arsenal FC40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7226058.5%152 W · 108 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Arsenal FC40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7236758.3%214 W · 153 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Arsenal FC41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.832755.7%182 W · 145 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Arsenal FC40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7238358.2%223 W · 160 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10a3…ae13backed Arsenal FC43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.285860.3%35 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Arsenal FC50c115.43$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0115955.3%88 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Arsenal FC40c112$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6631557.8%182 W · 133 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Aston Villa FC57c110.29$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.051,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b43…9e23backed Aston Villa FC59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010535.2%37 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…3e87backed Aston Villa FC58c100.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.265028%14 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Aston Villa FC57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5732822.3%73 W · 255 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Arsenal FC43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.