Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90e0186ed8ce155a80d0b62e1927df3e66bff986313a31b54931489486a252d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 7,432$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,784.05 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109f…6b8cbacked Under | 58c | 6,000$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,468 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 42c | 5,849$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.7 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 3,865$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399.47 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 3,246$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.41 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 58c | 2,197$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.5 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 2,125$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.09 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…63cbbacked Under | 74c | 763.04$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 16c | 450$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Under | 58c | 419.19$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.81 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 32c | 333$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2058…cf57backed Under | 61c | 328.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 41c | 210$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Under | 70c | 92.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Over | 43c | 92.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…3cdcbacked Under | 60c | 83.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 18c | 78.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Over | 15c | 75.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Under | 69c | 72.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 48c | 52.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…f54fbacked Under | 59c | 50.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 28c | 41.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…7e15backed Under | 76c | 32.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.