Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a4f14bfd4690dc73dfe3f5aa4b4477bfeb66f55bd8e5a2f52e0ea78ec5c9e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 69c | 49,326$34,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,007.61 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 31,888$8,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,561.32 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 17,342$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,815.42 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 67c | 10,891$7,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,299.28 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 9,575$4,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,978.81 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Under | 77c | 7,800$6,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,006 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 33c | 7,712$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,138.42 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 44c | 5,383$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.1 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed Under | 68c | 4,500$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 69c | 3,609$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 22c | 2,642$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.76 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 78c | 2,000$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.5 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 1,950$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.7 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 28c | 1,509$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.29 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 33c | 1,492$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.54 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 22c | 1,187$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.76 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Over | 29c | 927.64$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.25 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 68c | 661.76$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 23c | 651.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.91 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5a59backed Over | 61c | 525.37$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 525.22$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.25 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Under | 39c | 495$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 64c | 314.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 12c | 275$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 32c | 244$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 74c | 243.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 76c | 203.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 69c | 203.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…8fbfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 197.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Over | 51c | 196.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8470…7933backed Over | 23c | 142.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 305 | 54.8%167 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…3cdcbacked Under | 49c | 102.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 27c | 98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…9847backed Under | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…7e58backed Under | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…395cbacked Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 66c | 60.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 34c | 59.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 32c | 52.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Over | 36c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…8650backed Over | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…06b3backed Over | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 40c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…feafbacked Over | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…bf0abacked Under | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 49c | 26.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 60c | 17.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.