Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f5ea9051cfba4d0152e5358af45ba6d9981d27c71640dfa26979db81afa97d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $411,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $408,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab82…abe5backed Yes | 22c | 366,178$79,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,065.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 76c | 216,643$164,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,664.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 21,378$16,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,412.58 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 8,999$6,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.63 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 76c | 5,895$4,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.91 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 4,868$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.43 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Yes | 30c | 1,405$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.63 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 72c | 1,176$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 1,161$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…c3adbacked No | 73c | 741.22$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 29c | 739.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 733.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00b8…933ebacked Yes | 28c | 693.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 557.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 516.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.37 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 503.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 7c | 338.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Yes | 9c | 315.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 282.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 71c | 276.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c4…2d95backed Yes | 28c | 246.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…cab4backed No | 78c | 234.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…6c2ebacked Yes | 30c | 223.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 72c | 211.1$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 71c | 179.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 168.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 25c | 139.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 76c | 130.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 72c | 112.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 105.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 76c | 101.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 29c | 98.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed No | 76c | 97.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 72c | 88.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 70c | 66.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…6f74backed No | 76c | 65.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 64.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 78c | 62.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 51.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 77c | 49.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…6451backed Yes | 28c | 45.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 44.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…8db8backed No | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…63dfbacked Yes | 29c | 39.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed No | 76c | 36.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 31c | 34.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 21.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked No | 77c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked No | 76c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked No | 77c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 70c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…5923backed No | 79c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…02e6backed No | 77c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 79c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-09?Yes won
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.