Earnings · resolved market
Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481be78b2a303e296d873c4b4039751e93a093639cd4b4229034d504cb5844e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4533…d575backed No | 46c | 961.98$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 52c | 575.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 56c | 492.65$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 47c | 414.51$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 64cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes | 53c | 379.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 49c | 235.88$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 47c | 212.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 44c | 196.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 196.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…8a7ebacked Yes | 45c | 164.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes | 48c | 146.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 136.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 52c | 108$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked No | 55c | 104.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…5117backed Yes | 52c | 96.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed No | 55c | 90.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…69a2backed No | 59c | 81.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 52c | 80.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…1cb3backed Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked No | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…4b39backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…2c0abacked Yes | 48c | 62.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…7b3ebacked Yes | 41c | 59.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…78eebacked No | 64c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed No | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 70c | 51.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…baf3backed Yes | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 53c | 42.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…0ca9backed No | 60c | 41.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…8390backed Yes | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 52c | 38.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…75dcbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…702abacked Yes | 51c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…d599backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…35c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…8039backed No | 56c | 18.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call?this page
- Will NVIDIA say "Arizona" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Automation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Cosmos" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Domestic" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "GM / General Motors" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Gaming" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "H20" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Humanoid" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Omniverse" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Self Driving" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "TSMC" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Taiwan" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Talent" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Tariff" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.