Earnings · resolved market
Will NVIDIA say "Tariff" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe45f63ad3b046c759eda7da693d3b203c43019b401d412b62d960575964c7b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 48c | 670.01$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 46c | 575.37$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed No | 48c | 530.81$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 48c | 386.62$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…cf2bbacked Yes | 74c | 270.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 65c | 224.95$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 64cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…3c93backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…2c0abacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 33c | 156.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 47c | 153.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…bbdbbacked No | 54c | 150.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 26c | 137.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Yes | 63c | 124.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e619backed Yes | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…c397backed Yes | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked No | 49c | 96.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 54c | 93.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 53c | 81.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes | 52c | 81.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 67c | 74.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…69a2backed No | 59c | 64.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…baf3backed Yes | 47c | 52.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 48c | 52.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Yes | 53c | 51.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…92fdbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…07fbbacked Yes | 52c | 48.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 44c | 48.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…250dbacked No | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…0029backed No | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…0ebcbacked Yes | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Yes | 48c | 37.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…4bacbacked Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…de0dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…35c9backed No | 51c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 52c | 32.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…056fbacked Yes | 53c | 32.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…78f4backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…e4c5backed Yes | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…7448backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…a853backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…ecafbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1322…c94dbacked Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA say "Tariff" during earnings call?this page
- Will NVIDIA say "Arizona" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Automation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Cosmos" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Domestic" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "GM / General Motors" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Gaming" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "H20" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Humanoid" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Omniverse" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Self Driving" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "TSMC" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Taiwan" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Talent" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.