Earnings · resolved market
Will NVIDIA say "Self Driving" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb708582c77b5c00b9f8bfab5150d96970b1f8b1a7c9ac6786e5042a3db1510e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 30c | 234.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 77c | 160.55$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 17 | 100%17 W · 0 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 70c | 143.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…55bcbacked Yes | 79c | 126.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 34c | 124.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 111.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 55c | 110.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 109.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…3740backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 68c | 99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No | 43c | 48.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…0029backed No | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…c634backed Yes | 74c | 34.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…3c2abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Yes | 70c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA say "Self Driving" during earnings call?this page
- Will NVIDIA say "Arizona" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Automation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Cosmos" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Domestic" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "GM / General Motors" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Gaming" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "H20" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Humanoid" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Omniverse" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "TSMC" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA say "Taiwan" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Talent" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Tariff" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call?No won
- Will NVIDIA say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.