TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will NVIDIA say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe4da…1772backed No11c1,092$121 inLost-$120.812161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a9…69a2backed No22c661.5$144 inLost-$144.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed No22c562$123 inLost-$123.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No11c560$61 inLost-$611070%7 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+129.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked No9c351.96$31 inLost-$31.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+80%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No24c346.38$84 inLost-$83.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c331.03$28 inLost-$28.4646414.2%66 W · 398 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707f…6fc4backed No20c307.49$61 inLost-$61.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes72c292.01$210 inWon+$82.1117100%17 W · 0 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No28c270$76 inLost-$75.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No18c217$40 inLost-$39.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb4…21c1backed No13c200$25 inLost-$25650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No11c200$22 inLost-$229851%50 W · 48 L+10.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x487a…5040backed No15c167.33$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No16c164.09$27 inLost-$27.03128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-70.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No14c156.21$22 inLost-$22.331450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No11c117$13 inLost-$12.652673.1%19 W · 7 L+6.1wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+36%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed No15c99.84$15 inLost-$14.983253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…5a73backed No22c90.41$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes72c77.48$56 inWon+$21.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0070…afd5backed No20c70$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ff…ff2dbacked No20c70$14 inLost-$13.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3470…92fdbacked Yes72c50$36 inWon+$14.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed No55c36.41$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes80c30$24 inWon+$61136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9360…03e6backed Yes76c30$23 inWon+$7.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes79c20$16 inWon+$4.27121.1%15 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.