TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will NVIDIA say "TSMC" during earnings call?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,636 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31a9…69a2backed No40c462.93$187 inLost-$186.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4533…d575backed Yes53c200$106 inWon+$942330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes69c156.83$107 inWon+$49.351275%9 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+38%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes78c127.91$100 inWon+$27.911883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7352…e156backed Yes76c118.52$90 inWon+$28.121250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No21c100.13$21 inLost-$21.4946314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed Yes60c100$60 inWon+$403253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed No23c100$23 inLost-$232572%18 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes70c99.99$70 inWon+$30666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+87.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No28c96$27 inLost-$27.092673.1%19 W · 7 L+6.1wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+36%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed No36c80$29 inLost-$28.8166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick33cpaid-87%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed No30c66.67$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed No22c55.68$12 inLost-$12.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3470…92fdbacked Yes77c51.68$40 inWon+$11.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5673…98fdbacked No29c46.31$14 inLost-$13.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No27c41.27$11 inLost-$11.0710658.5%62 W · 44 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39fd…7d31backed Yes71c41$29 inWon+$11.892185.7%18 W · 3 L+6.5wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+97.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed Yes68c40$27 inWon+$135100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc12…eb59backed No28c40$11 inLost-$11.25540%22 W · 33 L+8.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes73c40$29 inWon+$10.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes77c30$23 inWon+$6.92770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes69c30$21 inWon+$9.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdda9…35c9backed Yes78c25$20 inWon+$5.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes66c20$13 inWon+$6.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes60c20$12 inWon+$87121.1%15 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.