AI · resolved market
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d7fe55c527d3f1cc689bc21d407d3bc28c8dc6968685a7ab666bc0a2e669e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,118$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb0…72fcbacked No | 79c | 426.52$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 315.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed No | 55c | 282.56$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 79c | 256.44$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 221.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 172.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 154.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 144.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 66c | 124.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked No | 71c | 91.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…90f3backed No | 80c | 73.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 55c | 47.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 59c | 45.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…8adabacked No | 80c | 42.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 66c | 37.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…03c5backed No | 65c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…8b90backed No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…2047backed No | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…5c84backed No | 69c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ab…ffbfbacked No | 67c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 67c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…24fdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?this page
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026?No won
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.