TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c7b…5485backed No74c4,112$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.562740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes28c2,940$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.1815932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc961…db04backed Yes13c2,776$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c1,770$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.21676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c1,616$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,207$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c1,204$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4119315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No67c1,198$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.331723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes28c1,131$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.0211435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes4c1,051$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9910634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes12c943.94$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No72c938.44$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.562934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes15c875$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes2c759.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.466835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd02…fb6abacked Yes13c749.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c688.08$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6222029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes34c686.75$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.85650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+116.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes18c632.57$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.093135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes26c565$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.213243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No72c549.15$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.154045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f8b…d1eebacked Yes4c521.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes3c510.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9618445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes4c504.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes17c490.07$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick28cpaid+73.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c458.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.642543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Yes27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490d…d807backed Yes19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes9c385$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6514637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes11c304.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6727438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9314225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes21c297.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8911020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71e4…2381backed Yes22c294.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d4…cf09backed Yes6c287.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c242.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffda…c1fcbacked No66c240$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c235.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.682117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked No71c227.15$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.773756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+188.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7738…76a4backed Yes17c212.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes26c209.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes11c201.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd844…cdd9backed Yes29c201.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503f…2313backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3e…ea35backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+99.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524445.5%20 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c199.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No74c199.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5212630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa883…31fbbacked Yes22c199.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.911540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.417330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5711…5853backed No67c159.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c155.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes17c152.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2624637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x467b…b849backed Yes35c149.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c139.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1239414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes28c139.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb11…f7ecbacked Yes30c120.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Yes25c111.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9121…83b7backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+46.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes25c107.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes27c104.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.251637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes20c102.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9949…3f3bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes29c97.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.33745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b9…6b7cbacked Yes29c97.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd5…f4f1backed No78c88.45$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.46988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+37.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes34c80.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.423237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d88…39d8backed Yes16c80.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed No71c80$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes19c72.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.712638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea49…cec1backed Yes26c72.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21fc…6aeebacked Yes29c68.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b1…4c7bbacked Yes19c60.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.813348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c61…35d9backed Yes35c56.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked No72c54.31$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.211040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c52.51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6115076%114 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed Yes25c42.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f99…abc7backed No72c40.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16a…5f9abacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48051.3%41 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ef…4535backed No72c34.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1601…6bfcbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x065e…cf28backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-54.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No77c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.914515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3bb…fce3backed No62c25.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47a3…2a55backed No78c22.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d53…bcb7backed No75c19.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d66…7810backed No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.152050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ab…e190backed No73c14.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.