Earnings · resolved market
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b4a6afc8ecaa5126acab9337be86aa4a6d4c51b1b34a2ab77ebb4ecf1b832b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 3c | 51,294$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,839$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 3c | 4,500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 4c | 4,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 3c | 4,172$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 2c | 4,015$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…5dcabacked No | 4c | 3,759$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 3c | 3,669$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…1e75backed No | 4c | 2,546$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…a56fbacked No | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed No | 4c | 2,350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 3c | 2,283$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380e…5f39backed No | 5c | 1,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked No | 5c | 1,753$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 1,743$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 2c | 1,687$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 1,634$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 1,614$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed No | 5c | 1,582$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 3c | 1,546$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,517$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,422$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 4c | 1,198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 4c | 1,143$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 6c | 1,100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 4c | 1,099$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed No | 5c | 1,095$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa85…fe60backed No | 6c | 1,080$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 3c | 1,076$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…2799backed No | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…4d32backed No | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a7…cbd5backed No | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed No | 6c | 999.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 959.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…e1cbbacked No | 3c | 939.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 4c | 900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…daecbacked No | 3c | 897.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 3c | 865.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 865.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…31f3backed No | 4c | 841.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…04e8backed No | 6c | 828.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 3c | 800.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked No | 2c | 745$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 5c | 724.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…65a2backed No | 3c | 714.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +178%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 4c | 674.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 628.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…cc54backed No | 6c | 609.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…dfddbacked No | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 4c | 593.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 4c | 571.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…c0adbacked No | 4c | 569.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…6433backed No | 8c | 555.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 6c | 550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 5c | 520$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…6feebacked No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed No | 5c | 497.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 3c | 423.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…84a5backed No | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 4c | 371.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…4145backed No | 4c | 343.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…6d6fbacked No | 6c | 332.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fb…7310backed No | 3c | 320.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…e84fbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked No | 8c | 267.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…9a32backed No | 5c | 226.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 8c | 208.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.