Middle East · resolved market
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953211a029b0a686fe15f5e4ae97a453e409474d586fae61a728a1419bb9edee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 21c | 5,628$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.66 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 63c | 2,767$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.19 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 5c | 2,051$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 77c | 1,825$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.88 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a5…cc02backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 635.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 572.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 65c | 510.54$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 504.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 38c | 498.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 10c | 480.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 475.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 3c | 444$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 79c | 415.82$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 408$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…8f0dbacked Yes | 3c | 392$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 386.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 3c | 374$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 3c | 370$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 3c | 362$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 14c | 350.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 4c | 313$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 303.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 34c | 292.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 4c | 275$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 39c | 270.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…72e3backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 4c | 254$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes | 26c | 249.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 5c | 226$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…4e0bbacked No | 79c | 189.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 185.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 19c | 175.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…077cbacked Yes | 17c | 174.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 62c | 173.6$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 30c | 167.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 18c | 166$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 162.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…8efcbacked No | 67c | 148$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 137.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed No | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 39c | 125.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 64c | 114.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…1336backed Yes | 12c | 100.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 30c | 99.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 17c | 87.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 23c | 85.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 65c | 67.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 62c | 65.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…cb3dbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…31edbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 61c | 49.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 60c | 44.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 65c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025?this page
- Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No won
- Will Indonesia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No won
- Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No won
- Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No won
- Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.