TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x00aa…17edbacked Yes68c5,046$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45040%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes21c2,081$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.197240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked No14c1,931$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.164425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c95…1c1bbacked No70c1,414$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+73.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42c2…498ebacked No36c1,400$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.49per pick38cpaid+132%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaa4a…d651backed Yes17c1,180$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.53728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+99.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes52c1,122$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.387439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No66c1,000$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2617859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No47c918.66$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.919046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Yes62c900$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5583324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No49c877.09$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.5616247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28b4…3b95backed No67c870.19$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No29c841.45$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.3423841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes19c793.76$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8114732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No60c673.77$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.942665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x296d…70f9backed No34c635$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.155743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f65…1679backed No60c603.52$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.411776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c576.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed No73c559.98$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.399550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed Yes54c547.86$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf135…84f4backed Yes27c540$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x124e…ab7cbacked Yes42c520$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea07…d8b7backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No73c493.16$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1339747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe92d…e158backed Yes71c420.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-85.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3531…4fb3backed Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes65c379$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3560%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes31c325.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…4166backed Yes34c318.21$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b6…8863backed No65c305.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No66c302.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.777231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1175657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed No54c276.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.075945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked No35c273$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.451030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No55c269.86$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.586656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7482…8464backed No18c250$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+323.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedda…2e39backed Yes63c239.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.29240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef65…24dbbacked Yes18c239.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.071172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes29c226.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.298532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed No45c221.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No73c215.97$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5213054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a0e…27a4backed No50c200.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.352240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10616740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked No64c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.941464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb30…8a73backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa539…c472backed No35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+83%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82c3…8e50backed Yes15c197.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes68c196.64$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.895149%25 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9564…2433backed No78c186.67$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…8ddbbacked Yes32c180.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.07825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No71c180$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.810763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x73e4…9187backed No37c161.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.582650%13 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+56.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24c9…d693backed Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.770%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No65c159.39$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3810370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…d9d7backed Yes34c144.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.72227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No72c138.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6610756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes9c138.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.292094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed No67c137.24$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.297123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb412…3acfbacked Yes15c134.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a12…4833backed No68c131.59$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.26520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes33c130$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.23225%8 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa0…b403backed No25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4529…243ebacked No59c118.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.64977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+79.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No55c111.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7815637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc5…c058backed Yes48c107.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcae1…cb4dbacked No69c104.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed Yes24c102.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.051346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x936b…c603backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8203…0187backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2a21…d26abacked No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e45…6f64backed No33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.992962.1%18 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+69.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes64c98.89$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.291540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9b…7a04backed No75c94.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.534751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce8…019abacked No78c90.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d06…00d4backed No35c86.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.624468.2%30 W · 14 L+12.3wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+70.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No35c84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+89.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7140…31febacked No34c70.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.971369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbc…3b3cbacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cc…d5cfbacked No63c63.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.57042.9%30 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ba…c903backed No33c60.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.774100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+115.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdac…8dc5backed No66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.612142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea0…bf6dbacked No62c53.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.62744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffbe…1dfabacked Yes56c53.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.54571.1%32 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…421dbacked No36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No47c48.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.946320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes31c48.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7716927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes35c41.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3920422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x249f…197bbacked No74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+56.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1321…45ddbacked No39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6b…5293backed No39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a76…c4e9backed No35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264647.8%22 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+52.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.