TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Almanak FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed5a…3550backed No61c7,436$4,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes1c6,260$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.474816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4256…e529backed Yes39c4,615$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No52c3,113$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.193834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes18c3,000$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.347231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797a…7924backed Yes4c2,978$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.632218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed Yes12c2,800$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.516934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes30c2,700$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8093420.6%7 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1c…970abacked No77c2,474$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.681643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed Yes48c2,100$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.993330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2163…7ec2backed No73c1,691$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.731080%8 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00aa…17edbacked Yes67c1,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6903…b6f9backed Yes2c1,369$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,294$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.827663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…3c75backed Yes52c1,286$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.31957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xace9…c41fbacked Yes41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No66c1,210$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.8810756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3252…81cfbacked Yes68c1,134$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.963732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed No40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked Yes2c909.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes75c888$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.615149%25 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbdc…2a9bbacked Yes14c699.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes74c673.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes56c660.94$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.478532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No33c650.02$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.7523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No61c648.67$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.4912528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf135…84f4backed Yes44c647$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89e8…b06cbacked Yes29c639.82$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be5…2d9abacked No33c616.67$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed Yes66c604.99$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7950…1d42backed No58c599.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.381353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed Yes2c537.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761040%4 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+507.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Yes20c528.68$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.74742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+167.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c4…dd99backed Yes15c528.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.211136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked No18c523.14$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.384425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes12c522.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.162944.8%13 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c510.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.281122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae2…acbbbacked No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+172.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3531…4fb3backed Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c498.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.282541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No25c498.62$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.965330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bc…6588backed Yes30c493.17$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.491040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No29c485$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.059046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c3…8e50backed Yes46c460.25$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No54c448$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.969747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17c…36e0backed Yes22c444.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No54c427.48$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.192665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed No44c420.74$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.174415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed No75c408.48$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.121844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…a34fbacked Yes61c405.05$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.932552%13 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe92d…e158backed Yes75c401.91$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-85.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2452.2%1 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd688…1059backed No55c399.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes46c398.71$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.423225%8 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edf…b5f2backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked No53c378.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5111100%11 W · 0 L+4.8wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+97.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes6c377.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.67263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes16c376$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.942377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedda…2e39backed Yes67c359.98$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.799240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No66c356.49$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3313054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44ff…997fbacked Yes14c355.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed No32c350$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23810948.6%53 W · 56 L+11.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+54%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75b0…da20backed No29c349.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+249.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed No43c348.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.965945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb30…8a73backed Yes24c336.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.491241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1101…dcfabacked Yes13c336.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f89…619bbacked No73c332.53$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.78366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c5…82d3backed Yes11c330.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcea0…bf6dbacked No43c330$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.82744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No42c324.75$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.966656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes39c320$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1263265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed Yes27c313.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.511735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x296d…70f9backed No40c306.29$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.495743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e45…6f64backed No50c300.32$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.432962.1%18 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+69.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9b…47eabacked No62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142665.4%17 W · 9 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick36cpaid+117%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x124e…ab7cbacked Yes67c299.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No63c253.17$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.85966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7482…8464backed No19c250$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+323.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4529…243ebacked No40c248.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.46977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+79.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6166…e5a0backed Yes10c245$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd550…c36cbacked Yes76c242.96$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes53c240$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.81540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c230.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a5…0f36backed Yes9c213.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13616740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17416247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ff7…17aabacked No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4a…d651backed Yes25c199.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+99.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No52c199.61$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8115941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62c2…9646backed Yes23c189.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes48c180.37$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9625422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c2…498ebacked No29c180$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.49per pick38cpaid+132%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x61d7…01f0backed No71c169.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.212138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c168.23$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0346320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes36c168.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7214732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.