TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes39c17,913$7,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,075.324425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x829b…0473backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes75c9,803$7,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,335.74257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes0c9,477$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f8…6efebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes71c4,063$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.647231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No21c2,892$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.0913131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9fc…6033backed No19c2,530$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.382832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95f2…3de3backed No22c2,334$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.871250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked No73c2,322$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.91850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes70c2,249$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.2720551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No65c2,105$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.793834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes6c2,090$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.434816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…de6bbacked No37c2,045$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.472321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes34c1,869$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.8410763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,845$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.717663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No16c1,824$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+106.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No50c1,691$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.5210756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No70c1,632$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.733145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e56…c3f3backed No47c1,528$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.131637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes30c1,453$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.942218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…73b4backed No27c1,363$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.431450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943a…82d4backed No32c1,337$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.912642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No25c1,330$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x514b…ad6abacked Yes2c1,325$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…d58cbacked No35c1,323$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.832941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2076…bf0dbacked No78c1,313$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No16c1,305$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.7310320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…6246backed Yes80c1,300$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0351338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda24…4af9backed No18c1,251$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.351216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d8…19e6backed Yes80c1,200$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No16c1,200$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.998017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes36c1,078$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.013531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c1,066$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.69773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4951…42e3backed No27c1,034$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.372339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8329…5488backed No49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…e736backed Yes3c1,020$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No25c1,010$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.639920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…4ae5backed No10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae98…210cbacked Yes75c999.99$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-46.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba94…d855backed Yes53c999.99$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.132536%9 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e67…f4a7backed No32c935$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.11936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No13c841.79$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.3612528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbecc…5f5bbacked No13c824.07$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+94.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed No25c805.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.08560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+70.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No26c800.05$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.4516247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f9b…47eabacked No13c800$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6962665.4%17 W · 9 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick36cpaid+117%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbad9…dbe1backed No19c770.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.55166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…b44ebacked No24c751.14$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+175%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05f…4ea4backed Yes66c656$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c633.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c624.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.951190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1101…dcfabacked Yes3c608$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fca…7033backed No16c600$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5041833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c594.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.432541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c4…0926backed No72c592.54$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.912653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa143…2ea6backed No12c590$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick31cpaid+126.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe09b…d14cbacked No17c588.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.241233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No34c580.88$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9614732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x247b…6610backed No27c561.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.572138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes2c553.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05452.2%1 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa5…427abacked No32c550$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.154822.9%11 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c95…30cbbacked No35c538.87$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.074942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440c…4a48backed No34c526.67$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.62944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes68c525.84$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35815637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d16…8ac4backed No17c520$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.23330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bc…9b04backed No20c510$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4101330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No16c500$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.614141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3857431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d8…36fdbacked No29c500$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3552339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed No10c499.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.998421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…46e6backed No19c499.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.994163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd688…1059backed No20c490$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b8…5197backed Yes4c476.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+86.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf7…a1abbacked No33c475.33$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0835…668cbacked Yes50c465.06$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.531315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-67.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad0a…64f2backed No22c450.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2220…9f1cbacked No23c436.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.093836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa2…16dcbacked No23c431.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.311258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick29cpaid+58.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3abe…6c5ebacked Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…afb9backed No75c397.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc37…5e40backed Yes26c382.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec00…7a8cbacked No17c377.76$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefff…bbe8backed No27c373.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.062240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No14c363.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.066656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No13c359.34$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.7714335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bb…4982backed No76c358.93$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes7c350.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fef…24d6backed No61c346.67$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes73c339.25$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.110370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x990e…e789backed No30c330$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed No80c329.72$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cea…1996backed No30c329.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed No16c312.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.54415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c6b…d8f6backed No32c308.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.31520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbdc…2a9bbacked No33c303.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.332035%7 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No31c300$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20615362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc135…21b0backed No26c300$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2214843.8%21 W · 27 L+8.0wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+64.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xddc3…c453backed No12c300$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2643033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.