TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x95f2…3de3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$8,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$8,879.92
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$8,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$8,473.79
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,220Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+51.5%+$2,174.73
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+47.1%+$89.16
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$5,973Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+53.8%+$3,210.89
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+354.9%+$1,820.87
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+316.7%+$760
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$2,230
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$5,589Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+33.7%+$1,882.28
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-62.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FaZe (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffsbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.89
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs HyperSpirit (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship Group Cbacked HyperSpirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs OG (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffsbacked JiJieHao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 Playoffsbacked GenOne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.36
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stagebacked ASTRAL · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffsbacked MOUZ NXT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stagebacked los kogutos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+199.7%+$39.03
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+192.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+65.1%+$15.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$47.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$34.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.